Unlike in 2003-4 this time the baby named Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance had a premature birth. Therefore, it needs to be placed in an incubator for some time, otherwise it may not survive. Or if it remains alive it would be a weak entity in the era of strong and muscular politics.
When the leaders of 16 parties first met in June 23 this columnist felt that it was born too early. The reason was simple: it would give the rival Bharatiya Janata Party 11 months time to chalk out its strategy to counter the threat posed by this conglomeration.
Besides, there was election due in five states at the end of 2023, which was bound to cause disunity in the opposition camp. This was in total contrast to the 2003-4 situation (which our political pundits often refer to) when efforts to bring most of the opposition parties were initiated after the Assembly polls were over in four states: Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi in December 2003. The BJP won the first three named states and like Telangana this time the Congress won Delhi.
Scenario in 2004
Spurred by this verdict the BJP in its national executive in Hyderabad on January 11, 2004 announced the preponement of the election from September-October to April-May the same year. Actually, the work for the opposition unity started after that. A few weeks earlier DMK had snapped ties with the BJP–rather the saffron party embraced the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu sometimes after it came to power in May 2001. In fact, DMK was left high and dry.
Unlike this time, the Congress-led opposition alliance was more or less confined to DMK in Tamil Nadu, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Lok Janshakti Party in Bihar and to some extent in Jharkhand. In West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura the Left Front was too strong then. In Uttar Pradesh, it was a four cornered contest in which the Samajwadi Party emerged strongest winning 39 seats. Both SP and Bahujan Samaj Party lent support to the Congress-led alliance after the result was out on May 13, 2004.
As the opposition alliance work started too late the BJP’s think-tank failed to read the strong undercurrent against it in some of the states and could not get time to counter it. There was no Assembly election between January and April so that the opposition rift could resurface.
The BJP led National Democratic Alliance was routed notwithstanding the fact that Trinamool Congress, Shiv Sena, Biju Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United), Shiromani Akali Dal, AIADMK etc were its constituents.
The BJP ended up with just 139 seats (against 183 in 1999) when as per in several premier surveys the NDA was expected to get 350 seats.
Surprise in 1977
Notwithstanding the general perception now the fact is that be it in 2004 or 1977—that is the election held at the fag end of emergency—the ruling party (Congress then) could not get enough time to respond. On January 19, 1977 the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi announced that an election would be held soon. That was the time when most of the opposition stalwarts were still in jail and they were a divided lot. Yet in a matter of days they were released, formed a new party by merging five of them, and went to the election under the banner of Janata Party on March 16. By March 24 everything was over and a new Janata Party Prime Minister, Morarji Desai, was elected.
So, on both the occasions the powerful PMs, Indira and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, were taken by complete surprise.
In contrast this time, perhaps prompted by the media-created narrative of divided opposition, some of the regional satraps and Congress thought it better to sit together and work for unity. But exactly a week after the Patna meet the BJP struck and engineered a split in the Nationalist Congress Party and one of its leaders present in Bihar’s capital, Praful Patel, was seen in the saffron camp.
When the opposition big shots once again came together—this time 26 in number–in Bangalore on July 18 the BJP in haste called the meeting of rump NDA in Delhi. In all 38 parties, almost double the actual strength, attended it. Though, it is also true that most of the parties had
negligible presence on their own.
In politics if one party or group undertakes any move publicly keeping time factor in mind it gives the rival exactly the same opportunity to play its card.
New strategy
The constituents of INDIA should now re-draw its strategy. The baby born on June 23 and later christened as INDIA on July 18 in Bangalore needs to be placed in an incubator. After it recovers fully it would be able to take on its rival in political wrestling of a different kind. Four months are enough time to re-group and fight back.
Be it the Mahua Moitra issue or the coming Budget the ruling BJP may, by its rash over confidence, commit mistakes and provide opportunity for the opposition to close their ranks and exploit the new situation—provided they are sincere. Time is ripe to dispel the media-created growing notion that INDIA is on ventilator.
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