The Bharatiya Janata Party’s hold on the Hindi heartland continues to remain rock solid as shown by the results of the latest Assembly elections.
However, those who take these election results as the results of a semifinal for the 2024 finals, should hold their horses, before declaring Modi as the winner in the 2024 hustings, because Assembly elections and General elections are completely different ball game.
The states where BJP came out with a thumping majority this time were states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, where BJP is already an extremely strong force in the state, with or without having been in the seat of power.
But the important point to note is that despite wresting power from Congress like Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the BJP has not been able to wipe out the Congress completely despite its huge success.
The BJP has been able to covert its vote share into the large number of seats which Congress was unable to but as far as Congress’ vote share is concerned, it has remained intact around 42 percent.
If that vote share converts into seats during the General elections for the Congress then it may greatly help Congress and the INDIA alliance.
It is mainly the Hindi belt which holds Prime Minister Modi as its greatest political mascot and Hindutva idol.
Winning these seats now is clearly reassuring for the Bharatiya Janata Party that the people here are still under Prime Minister Modi’s sway and BJP’s committed cadre and voter has not gone out of its grip.
So tactically contesting elections on Modi’s face has been the right move for the BJP, “Ek Modi Sab Pe Bhari”.
However, if we zoom out the focus from these three states and try to take a long shot of India we will find several pockets in the east and the south where neither Modi nor the Bharatiya Janata Party holds a sway.
It would be these pockets where Modi’s magic does not hold a charm that may play a decisive role in deciding whether BJP and Modi come back to power or not in the forthcoming General elections to take place throughout the country. Their role will be even more crucial if BJP’s numbers are not very high in the Hindi heartland.
Nationally, Modi definitely is the tallest and the most popular leader than all others. If India had a presidential system of government, Modi probably would win the elections hands down in a one-to-one contest with any leader propped up by the Opposition.
But, in the kind of complex complicated parliamentary system we have, Modi and his party have to trounce a number of regional leaders and parties in different parts of the country which have their own areas of influence to be able to come out with the highest numbers of seats in Lok Sabha.
Whether BJP can beat the regional satraps and parties in their own home ground is doubtful.
The national parties whether it be the BJP or the Congress have been surviving nationally largely by establishing alliances with the regional parties in different regions of the country.
Like in Odisha or West Bengal, it has not been possible to dislodge the regional parties like Biju Janata Dal and Trinamool Congress for decades now.
All the heavy guns of the BJP including the Prime Minister tried very hard the last time round in West Bengal to unseat Mamata Banerjee but were unable to do so. The same is the story for Navin Patnaik in Odisha.
The Prime Minister had mocked Mamata Banerjee calling her “Didi O Didi” but then she had the last laugh.
In recent days one had seen in Karnataka, Prime Minister holding rallies and even walking on the road along open pavements shops with crowds lined up, trying to emphasize his closeness to people but all that did not cut any ice with the people of Karnataka. The BJP-ruled state went to the Congress due to dissatisfaction with state governance.
Earlier Himachal Pradesh had gone to the Congress.
In this election too, Telangana has gone the Congress way, the electorate of the state making it clear that it preferred Congress among the two national parties, Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. The most significant point was that Congress was able to oust the regional party ruling the state. The Bharat Rashtra Samiti was rejected by the people after two consecutive terms.
This should be an eye opener to the BJP that it will take much more effort and years to make an inroad into the hearts and minds of the people of southern and eastern states.
There is a strong and large group in India that is completely against the Hindutva ideology of the Bharatiya Janata Party or to put it another way is not in favour of the kind of majoritarian rule at present. The fear that the BJP wants to impose Hindi language is also a fear in these states which is always stoked by the anti-BJP political parties.
Shockingly even though India’s 20 percent of the population is Muslim, no Muslim Minister or MP finds a place in Modi’s cabinet. Some people are simply irked by this because they feel that minority sections of society are not being adequately represented in the power structure.
The moot question is that, Is the success of BJP in the three out of five recent state elections indicate a success for the BJP in the 2024 elections. The answer is no.
Innumerable factors from now and the time the General elections take place can completely transform the mood of the people in the country including those who cast their votes this time.
The present win can definitely act as a moral booster for the BJP party cadre going forward to the General elections, but it can in no way guarantee the result of the 2024 elections in favour of Modi.
The only thing BJP should be wary of after such a big win close to the General elections is that the recent win should not make it and its party complacent. A point that even Prime Minister Modi has emphasized after the elections.
The right choice of Chief Ministers in the states where they have won leaving no disappointed and disgruntled leaders to create problems later during General elections is a must for both the BJP and the Congress.
As far as the Congress is concerned it should not be demoralized by the defeat at all. The state elections have no bearing on the forthcoming national elections as they have been known to be generally fought on local issues by local leaders.
The success of the BJP only shows that in the states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan most people are still very much with Modi.
The task of Congress and the Opposition to remove Modi from the driver’s seat has clearly become more challenging.
A lot of introspection has to be done by Congress as to where have they faulted. Corruption is one issue that has always been the bane of Congress and BJP is able to successfully highlight this during elections. Corruption must become a complete “no”, “no” for Congress. It should be known as the most “clean” party and keep away members who are known not to have a clean image.
The debacle of the Congress (which was being taken as the natural fulcrum and leader of the INDIA alliance) has put a question mark on the leadership of Congress in the Opposition INDIA alliance as its detractors will doubt Congress’ capability to put up a successful fight with the BJP juggernaut come 2024 General elections.
With hardly a few months left for the General elections to take place, the Opposition parties or the India Alliance have to put their house in order. The idea to have seat sharing following a mutually agreeable formula and give a one to one fight to the BJP as far as possible can be a possible way to challenge BJP. But the matter should not be delayed.
Clearly, the leading light of the INDIA alliance the Congress has been badly mauled. But in a sense, it is good news for the INDIA alliance because a subdued, humble Congress can be an asset in the INDIA alliance grouping particularly when discussing seat sharing formula for 2024.
Congress must leave its “Big brother” attitude if it wants the INDIA alliance to give any kind of contest to the formidable BJP in 2024 elections.
At the national level despite all its present debacles it is only the Congress party with its administrative and political experience of governance at the national level that can give any kind of fight to the BJP.
It must build a credible alternative narrative of an inclusive society of different religious and cultural groups in India, a unique diversity scenario against the monolithic society mirrored by the BJP.
It can also drum up the fact that the monolithic Hindu ideology of BJP is not suitable for the multi-cultural, multi ethnic, multi religious, multi-language society of India.
Secondly, it can also point out that with the huge majority backing Modi the Constitutional bodies and Constitutional proprieties were at times getting sidelined.
The so called bread and butter issues of price rise and unemployment directly hitting the common man all over the country would also be an issue for the Opposition to corner the government with during General elections.
The Opposition has definitely tried to put the government on the mat on issues like Manipur and Adani but an astute politician like Modi has always been able to sideline these and outshine them with successful landing of Chandrayaan and the grand G-20 Summit in India.
But uncertainty being the word for politics. No one knows what holds for Modi in 2024.
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