A series of acts of terror and gun battles between terrorists and security forces have been grabbing headlines as Jammu and Kashmir is in sharper focus on the issue of terrorism and the need for effective counter-terrorism strategies. The problem in surmounting the fresh challenge posed by the acts of terror is beyond the highly trained crop of terrorists who have come from across the Line of Control or international border, it is about the failure of complete analysis of what the terrorists want to achieve at the behest of Pakistan, and at this point in time when Islamabad is drowned in a sea of difficulties from its unprecedented economic woes and terror assaults which it alleges are being mounted from Afghan soil, why should it be doing what it is doing in J&K?
Pakistan is committed to what it terms “solidarity with the people of Kashmir suffering because of the difficult situation,”, it has added August 5 to its earlier calendar of solidarity day of February 5. It is relying on drugs, drones, and easy money that comes with it to revive terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir in the most audacious way. Barring two attacks, one in Reasi on June 9, and another in the Hiranagar area of Kathua district, terrorists have targeted army personnel, and till date killed 15 of them. In reply to a written question in the parliament, Union Minister of State for Home Nitya Nand rai had stated that 14 soldiers and 14 civilians were killed in J&K until July this year. Two soldiers and one civilian (whose credentials are a subject of investigation) have been added to this list on August 9, in south Kashmir’s Kokkernag forests, establishing that the terrorists have moved into the Valley from the Jammu region which since June 9 was on the radar of terrorists.
Every time it comes to diagnosing the problem of terrorism, there are obvious answers about the obvious culprit – Pakistan, its military, and spy agency Inter-Services- Intelligence. Pakistan is at the core of exporting terrorism into Jammu and Kashmir since 1947 even before the state had acceded to India. It launched a massive terror campaign in the shape of a full-fledged invasion in October 1947, that time its objective was to annex the Muslim -majority state then under Dogra rule. It thought that it will have free run of the Himalayan territory and will achieve with war what it could not by making Maharaja Hari Singh to accede the state to Pakistan. It had not anticipated that Kashmir would get acceded to India and the Indian army would push its forces back. But before the task could be accomplished, the ceasefire came in between. That created a dispute, the legacy of which still impacts people in Pakistan, they form the support base for terrorism and fall into the trap of manipulations of Pakistani establishment.
Seventy-seven years down the line Pakistan’s mindset remains the same. It might have changed ways of bleeding India vis J&K, but the mindset is to keep J&K on boil. This time, it is targeting the soldiers because that serves bigger purpose for it than the IED blasts or suicide bombings. It chose the Jammu region, which was peaceful and had rebuffed terrorism time and again. Soldiers were targeted because doing so, it attempted to show the vulnerabilities. It struck at the army convoys, camps in a way to keep the number of soldiers killed not more than five in any of the terror incidents. But it spread its terror campaign from plains to hills to the mountains, giving an impression that terrorists had a free run of the terrain. More than two months have passed – since June 9- when it began its campaign, the statistics of casualties of soldiers is alarming. The alarm bells have started ringing among the people in J&K, and also among the military strategists.
While Pakistan has to be in focus because of its sinister acts, there is a need to make a fresh study of counter-terrorism strategies. That is to review and bring newer elements into the strategy so that both short-term and long-term objectives are achieved to foil Pakistani design of J&K blipping on the radar as a conflict zone. the real objective of Pakistan is to keep J&K appearing on the map of terrorism and turbulences, which may force induction of more forces, giving an impression that the existing level of the security forces in J&K is insufficient to maintain peace and order. The arrival of more forces doesn’t bring an overnight solution , and the tendency to fix a time frame that everything will be over by next few months is more of rhetoric, far removed from reality than the actual counter-terrorism strategy. The decline in the terror incidents and casualties as compared to what was happening in 1990s to 2019 was a consequence of extraordinary work done by the security forces, public fatigue and the political will, but once it is claimed that everything is hunky dory, few incidents that too which often happen after regular intervals are more dangerous than when the number of terrorists ran into thousands. A cool headed and a strategy that includes geopolitics in it is required.
The fact is that the inner system should also be understood in proper perspective. The forces, including its retired officers, should desist from peddling political narratives just to give two contradictory impressions – that it is a serious situation of extreme proportions or it will go away just like that. Such rhetoric is not answer to the problem. It complicates the problem. It is also time for politicians to stay cool and watch the situation with extreme care and allow the security forces to work their own ways. Their words and fixing of deadlines of elimination of terrorism unnecessarily put pressure on the forces and their counter-terrorism strategies.
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