The steady spread of radicalisation in the Muslim world, the deepening Sunni-Shia conflict in the Middle East and the growing impact of the historical religious divides on the current geopolitics are the ongoing trends that should cause concern to the democratic world.
The attack on July 16 at Muscat, the capital of the Sultanate of Oman — a moderate Islamic country with friendly ties with the US, by a ‘suicide’ team of ISIS which along with Al Qaeda represents the leading forces of Islamic radicals, confirms that radicalisation was pushing ahead in this region.
The attackers targeted a Shia congregation worshipping on Ashura eve at Imam Ali Mosque — the event marked the first terrorist offensive in the Gulf in recent times — thereby demonstrating also the extreme hostility harboured by Sunni extremists against Shiites for historical reasons.
The fundamentalist Shiism is anti-US because of its ideological opposition to a capitalist economy and it is no surprise that Iran under the Ayatollah’s rule is getting politically aligned with Russia and China in the Cold War kind of divide that was evidently reappearing between the US on the one hand and the axis of these two countries, on the other.
What is being witnessed here is the fact that the divisions of ‘faith’ involving a fundamentalist Iran, a Salafi Saudi Arabia, a Zionist Israel and the Wahhabi forces of ISIS and Al Qaeda were influencing the political agenda of international relations.
The ‘war on terror’ launched by the US in the wake of 9/11 — first in Afghanistan and then in Iraq — led to a consolidation of Islamic radical forces in these two theatres. While the Taliban-Al Qaeda axis managed to dig in heels in the Afghanistan-Pak belt, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) arose in 2004 as an affiliate of Al Qaeda in the Iraq-Syria region.
Osama bin Laden founder leader of Al Qaeda was killed at Abbottabad in Pakistan in May 2011 in a midnight operation of US Navy SEALS and subsequently, Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi who had formed ISIS, was also killed in a raid by American troops in North Western Syria in October 2019.
The US policy of demolishing the leadership of Islamic radical outfits has not prevented the latter from advancing their indoctrination drive for Jehad and striking roots in new territories.
The historical memory of the 19th century Wahhabi revolt against the Western colonisers has kept the radical forces going after the US-led West — regarding the latter as their first enemy — and also targeting a country like Saudi Arabia considered to be the closest ally of the US in the Arab world.
The Saudis run a puritanical Salafi state but the Wahhabis while endorsing the ‘revivalist’ call of return to the golden period of Islam of the first four Caliphs, stand in total opposition to the US politically.
In Pakistan, the Tehrike Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks the establishment because of its leanings towards the US whereas in the Iraq-Syria region, ISIS directly confronts the American presence.
Both TTP and ISIS have also targeted Shiites because the more extremist a Sunni outfit was, the greater its hostility towards Shiism for historical reasons.
That radical Sunni-Shia antagonism is going to be a prime source of violent friction in the Muslim world in the coming times is indicated by the reports that Iran had decided to erect a 300-km boundary wall separating the country from Afghanistan- IRGC being made responsible for it showed that the project was of military importance.
What is impacting the current geopolitical scene is the series of attacks carried out by ISIS in Syria, Iran and Russia in recent times. In a lethal offensive ISIS-K, a branch of ISIS- attacked a Moscow concert hall on March 22, 2024, killing 130 people and injuring hundreds more.
The event was attributed to many reasons. Russian intervention in Syria in 2015 in support of the Assad regime was crucial for the survival of the latter against the onslaught of ISIS on the one hand and the Western-supported Islamic militants trying to oust him, on the other.
Russia has continued to firmly back Bashar Al Assad — a Shia — which makes the former a target of ISIS — the radical force seeking to destroy the Syrian regime.
Also, since Russia has, from the times of the Chechen wars, maintained a repressive approach towards its large Muslim population in the region, this added to the antipathy of ISIS towards Moscow. Further, both Russia and Iran are now politically on the same side of the fence — facing US sanctions — and this paved the way for a gradual strengthening of the Iran-Russia-China axis.
Significantly, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad visited Moscow and met Vladimir Putin on July 24 — they discussed the situation in the Middle East and the prospects of enhancing economic and trade relations between the two countries.
Interestingly, on the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint meeting of the US Congress and appealed for help to keep up the fight against Hamas.
Meanwhile, the NATO summit at Washington held on July 10 adopted a new action plan for enhancing engagement in the Middle East and North Africa — which is predominantly Muslim — by establishing NATO’s first liaison office in Amman, Jordon, to undertake among other things, preparations for creating the framework of emergency planning and crisis management.
Both the US and Russia are thus making moves to strengthen their hold in the region in line with the trend of a new Cold War appearing on the horizon. India has to handle this situation in a way that best serves its interests.
The Israel-Hamas confrontation precipitated by the terrorist attack of Hamas on Israel on October 7 last year, is showing no signs of moderation with the US being firmly aligned with Israel and China working to unite all Palestinian groups. China convened a meeting of these groups including the bitter rivals Hamas and Fatah, in Beijing on July 23 and got them to sign a ‘national unity’ agreement.
It may be mentioned that Israel’s Parliament, the Knesset, had on July 18 voted overwhelmingly to reject the establishment of a Palestinian State on the ground that it posed an ‘existential danger’ for Israel.
Israel has caused extensive destruction and loss of civilian lives in Gaza and there is pressure on Israel to halt its military operations to allow for the release of hostages on both sides. Still, there is no progress in this direction.
India has made a large contribution towards UN-sponsored assistance for the distressed Palestinians and joined the call for a ceasefire in Gaza — Israel’s continued military action in pursuit of Hamas has led to protest demonstrations in favour of Palestinians in the US, Europe and elsewhere.
Iran’s support for Hamas has hardened the earlier hostility between Iran and Israel, the two biggest powers in the Middle East — the geopolitical divide between them was getting aggravated by the religious contradiction between Zionism and fundamentalist Islam.
The targeted killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas in Tehran in an Israeli operation on July 31 — he had gone there to attend the swearing-in of the new Iranian President following the death of his predecessor in a helicopter crash, has aggravated tensions in the Middle East with Iran pledging revenge against Israel by way of a planned attack of Lebanon-based Hezbollah, its known proxy, at a time of Iran’s choosing.
In the midst of uncertainties in our neighbourhood, India has to strategise for dealing with South Asia and the Middle East in a manner that helps it to retain its image as an advocate of global peace, constructively use bilateral and multilateral relationships to this country’s best advantage and build its own strengths and capabilities to emerge as a world power in a multipolar setting.
In the face of deepening political and sectarian divides in the Middle East, India has done well to maintain strong relationships with Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran — the three major players in that region.
India is maintaining deep bonds with both Russia and the US in spite of the Ukraine-Russia armed conflict and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine following his meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, has strengthened India’s credentials as a potential peacemaker.
India would not like to push Russia in the lap of China and the Joe Biden Administration seemingly realised this — particularly after watching the moderating role of India at a forum like BRICS dominated by Russia and China and its part in Quad that was led by the US.
In South Asia, the Sino-Pak axis has assumed a higher profile — it was in action behind the recent developments in Bangladesh where the US also seemed to be tilting in favour of Pakistan against Bangladesh — and its adverse effect on India has to be carefully countered.
Jamaat-e-Islami which is an agent of Pak ISI wants to establish a fundamentalist Islamic state in Bangladesh in concert with the BNP of Begum Khalida Zia and India has to guard against any fallout of this communal militancy in the neighbourhood, on our soil.
(The writer is a former Director of the Intelligence Bureau. Views are personal)
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