Here is an anecdote from 1999 which has relevance today. The Congress and the then united Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had contested the Maharashtra Assembly polls against each other in a triangular contest; the third pole was the BJP-Shiv Sena which were in a pre-poll pact. They had won 133 seats between them.
They had protracted negotiations to form a government where a breakdown of talks was always an hour away. It was far too protracted and to outsiders seemed quite an unseemly quest for power while ideologically the two were opposed to the return of the Shiv Sena and Bharatiya Janata Party returning to power.
Some independents were ready to help reach the magic figure of 145 but only if the Congress and NCP came together. Vilasrao Deshmukh, who had been elected the leader of the Congress Legislature Party (CLP) had already resigned himself to be the leader of the Opposition because his party had won more seats than the NCP. BJP-Sena was desperate but couldn’t get support from independents.
At the talks underway where the deal between the two parties was eventually sealed when Deshmukh was briefly absent at the talks. I called him to ask for his reaction; Deshmukh confessed his surprise at the development because during the hard bargain with Sharad Pawar, the Congress had to yield several key portfolios though his was a smaller party. He had not imagined himself in that chair but had dreamt of it.
An ingredient in Pawar’s politics is ability to play poker. It was a tiring round after another grinding round and was held daily. Had not one senior member of the NCP, Chhagan Bhujbal showed desperation and asked Sushilkumar Shinde “to do something” to stave off the Sena’s return to power, “I would have taken even the chief minister’s post for my party. Bhujbal had to settle for the deputy’s post.
This is what Uddhav Thackeray wants to avoid post-poll because such a discussion is bound to take place, should the I.N.D.I.A win a majority. The major components of the alliance are the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray), NCP (Sharad Pawar), and the Congress with a likely smattering of other parties. It is hard to gauge which party would have a larger slice of the pie, never mind the vote shares.
That unpredictability is a character of any election where pre-poll alliances are a feature. Though the seats-for-content share can vary, the strike rate of each party matters in determining the numbers that are secured. A party with lower seat share with higher strike rate can outdo a larger contingent with a poorer ability to score. It is here that negotiations would be required and naturally the party with more seats would stake the claim.
Uddhav Thackeray has asked on at least occasions that the alliance should announce its candidate for the top job, that is the chief ministership before the parties go out canvassing for votes. The practicability of this suggestion, which is actually a demand given its repetition, are many for it is not yet clear which candidates, despite the best assessment of potential to win, would be fielded.
Once the chips are down, each political party would claim its right to have their party candidate occupy the chief minister’s chair if their tally was higher. Just like various parameters are cited to secure a seat for a contest in an alliance, the practice has been that the bigger party always took the cake. There need be no exception to this rule but Uddhav Thackeray sees it differently. He has an argument to buttress his demand.
Unless the alliance put up a face of their chief ministerial candidate, the electorate would need quite some convincing to vote for them. If Eknath Shinde is to be shown as a risky choice for Maharashtra’s leadership, which of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) would replace him once the votes are counted and the alliance won the election? The electorate ought not to be sold a pie in the sky.
Just after I.N.D.I.A was formed and the three main parties mentioned so far got down to the brass tacks of facing the two split away parties and the BJP, Uddhav had publicly stated his position but with a qualifier. He would settle for one face regardless of whose, as long as one was named. He was fobbed off with the announcement that he would be the campaign face. Other two parties have not yet responded to his reiteration. Not yet.
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