Will Trump make it to the Oval Office? India watches with bated breath as it is a neck-to-neck contest in the US elections this time.
Trump not only has extremely good chemistry with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but he also is not averse to a more important role being played by India in the subcontinent in view of its strategic interests, countering an expansionist, China.
Just recently Donald Trump, in a Diwali message condemned the violence against Hindus in Bangladesh and pledged to protect Hindu Americans from “anti-religion agendas” and defend their religious freedoms.
“It would have never happened on my watch,” Trump said emphasising the fact that he was all for religious freedom. Besides pointing out that Hindu interests would have been protected were he in the Oval Office now.
Biden stepping down and Kamala Harris vying for the top slot as the democrat nominee has drastically changed the poll equation.
Many who were anti-Biden suddenly swung towards Kamala. However, what is worrying Kamala is that during the last days of campaigning, reports are in from the critical Swing states that the electors were leaning towards Trump. The swing states are supposed to hold the key to the Oval Office.
Kamala Harris becoming the president of America may see the Democratic leadership pointing fingers at India on the issues of Human Rights, Kashmir, and Religious freedom.
Interestingly even though from Indian ethnic background with her mother being from Chennai, Kamala has always preferred to flaunt her African American background rather than Indian and also showed no particular interest towards India. It is reported that she did not come to India even though she was invited.
However, many see Trump all set to take over the Oval Office. The bookies are also betting for a Trump win and the global financial markets too have started making preparatory moves based on an imminent Trump win.
Naturally, the Big Business is all for Trump, no wonder Kamala talks of encouraging the small and medium entrepreneurs in America.
Trump is a rightist, and Kamala Harris leans toward the left. So, the Hindu rightist establishment of India feels a kind rapport with the Trump administration having similar values.
Either of them, Trump or Harris coming to power is going to impact the Indian economy.
Trump win, people feel might keep the banking interest rates high in America forcing the Reserve Bank of India to maintain higher rates which would help public sector banks compared to the Non-Baking Financial Corporations.
On the contrary Kamala Harris win is likely to lower the interest rates by RBI and benefit the Non-Banking Financial Corporations.
A win by Kamla Harris is also supposed to favor the Life Insurance companies in India as the Democrats support low interest rates, while Trump win may negatively impact them.
However, with Trump’s goal to restrict H-1B visas the possible brain drain in the IT sector may be reduced.
Even if Trump wins according to the present assessment the margins are going to be very thin against his opponent Kamala Harris in the forthcoming presidential elections.
Trump has several things going in his favour including the “sympathy” factor for having faced two assassination attempts and being injured during the election campaign.
At least at present just a few days before elections Trump seems to have a razor thin lead over Kamala Harris.
The second most important thing going in for Trump is that he is a tried and tested former president. He knows the ropes. While Kamala Harris will be taking over the Oval Office for the first time and hardly has that kind of an executive experience.
For majority of voters the main issue at the elections is that of economy and growing inflation which may go against the Biden dispensation (Kamala Harris) who during their four years are supposed to have messed it up.
Another important issue agitating the voters is the immigration issue which is clearly affecting the social and economic scenario of America.
Trump here has taken a bold stand against illegal immigration, which he knows will resound with most white Americans.
Derogating the immigrants he has even called out that they eat dogs and cats.
Abortion too has become an important issue. The Supreme Court of America overturned Roe v. Wade case two years ago allowing 22 states to restrict access to the procedure.
Harris who supports abortion access, talks of woman’s freedom and right to decisions regarding their own bodies believes that women voters will support her on this issue.
Trump on the other hand has said that his administration is also all for women but the controversial abortion issue is issue best left to each state and its voters to take a decision on it.
It has not been possible to pin him down on whether he supports a federal ban on abortion if he was elected. Harris alleges that Trump would limit access to birth control, outlaw medication for abortion and ban abortion nationwide, which naturally is refuted by Trump.
Voters seem to have more confidence in Trump than Harris on economic, immigration and foreign policies
Despite laughing at his antics and criticizing him for what he says and does, large proportion of the American public gives a thumbs up for Donald Trump when he runs for the presidency.
Voters are also likely to have more faith on Trump’s ability to for handling law enforcement and criminal justice issues.
As far as India is concerned Donald Trump is in the Indian camp as far as Indo-Pak relations are concerned.
One must remember that in his first term he cut $1.3 billion in security aid, accusing Pakistan of harboring militant groups like Taliban.
During Trump’s time ties with India deepened and India became Washington’s preferred partner in South Asia.
Pakistan’s close ties with China and its role in Afghanistan may also irk Trump.
In need of economic and security support from the US, Trump victory may lead to Pakistan tailoring its strategic relationship with China accordingly. It would not like to be seen having a cosy relationship with China.
Kamala Harris carries the baggage of all the grievances, disappointments, resentments and anger the voters have against Biden’s government.
Climate change is an issue which India considers extremely important while Trump seems to withdraw America from all international negotiations on Climate change. Here Kamala Harris will be onboard on all climate change issues.
Trump also holds a slight edge over Harris for handling law enforcement and criminal justice issues Americans
Trump’s win is likely to lead to opening of more avenues for export of Indian auto parts as the Trump administration will increase tariffs on Chinese imports and follow “China + 1” policy.
Thus, for India the share in the global supply chain will increase with coming of Trump.
Trump is also likely to have policies towards shale production which will lower global oil prices which will also positively impact India’s energy import bill.
Trump is also not in favour of being the global cop and would like to reduce geo political tensions world over which means he would not prefer oil rich countries playing politics on this energy resource. It would also help India which is greatly dependent on oil import for its energy source.
Trump’s “America First” policy and restrictive immigration policy would also effect Indian business and other sectors in India, though because of the tariff war between America and China, it may also lead to many Indian companies getting a chance to export to America or vie to take over the space left by China.
America may become a greater importer of Indian chemicals, textiles, ceramic, wire and cable, auto, energy and metal.
The US accounts for around 18 per cent of India’s merchandise exports, and the biggest export items include electronics, pearls & precious stones,nuclear reactors, iron & steel, autos and textiles.
Trump win will positively impact India while negatively impacting China.
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