By Dr. Manikya Mahesh
Indian voters have delivered their verdict on the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, but in an unexpected way. Everyone, including all pollsters, anticipated a clear mandate for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) BJP. Many assumed that the BJP would comfortably cross the simple majority mark of 272 seats. However, to the dismay of the BJP and its supporters, the verdict of the Indian electorate awarded them only 240 seats.
No one could have imagined that the strong leadership by the Gujarati duo (of Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah) in Indian politics would find themselves ruling the country at the mercy of their alliance partners, especially by regional parties.
This reliance on regional parties is seen as a resurgence of regional forces in Indian politics. The election results indicate a significant rise in regional parties, posing a challenge to national parties. Although the Indian National Congress party is celebrating its increase from 52 to 99 seats, the entire party and its leadership are conveniently forgetting that their target was not only to bring down Modi but also to form the government under its leadership as a big brother in the INDIA alliance.
At the same time, the BJP may have secured 240 seats on their own and being the single largest party, for them, the victory seems like a defeat. Their slogan “abki bar 400 par,” which literally translates to “this time 400+ seats,” did not materialize, forcing the party to reorient its political agenda. These results will change the priorities of the BJP and its leadership from pushing an aggressive Hindu agenda to accommodating the demands of the regional parties. The entire proposed coalition NDA government will start working like a “khichdi Sarkar,” unlike the previous 10 years of a strong government.
In 75 years of independent India, around 30-plus years were under coalition governments, starting from post-Indira Gandhi until the Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi era in 2014. However, in 2014, the poster boy of the BJP, Narendra Modi, led the party to a standalone victory, ending the coalition era. The BJP successfully increased its tally to 303 in the 2019 general elections, which led Modi to start thinking that they would enjoy the people’s mandate forever, resulting in many unwelcome changes in Indian politics under the Modi 2.0 government.
In the last 10 years, the entire political discourse, jargon, and language have completely changed. Modi, who initially advocated for cooperative federalism, adopted the grand old Congress party’s way of destabilizing governments in a different manner. The BJP also started destabilizing governments led by regional parties, mostly in coalition partnerships with the Congress party.
In the process of destabilizing or taking over political parties in states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Goa, Arunachal Pradesh, and others, the BJP antagonized regional forces and their future. However, under the leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, the BJP continued their efforts to expand into new states. In the process of expanding the party, the BJP cut ties with long-term allies like Shiv Sena and JDU.
These efforts to expand the party’s presence into newer areas made many new enemies for the BJP. The BJP’s talk about “one nation, one election” was seen as “one nation, one party” or “one nation, one leader,” raising concerns about the constitutional framework.
The rise of regional parties began with the formation of the INDIA alliance under the leadership of the Congress party. The alliance’s strategic seat-sharing and accommodating the parties in the alliance yielded significant political dividends. Regional parties also took up national issues such as the threat of reservations being revoked by the BJP, unemployment, and the threat to India’s secular fabric, in addition to local issues.
Factors like the brand fatigue of Narendra Modi and his Hindutva politics, poor employment creation, and economic indicators contributed to the success of regional parties in many states. Within a span of less than a year, the alliance successfully curtailed the BJP juggernaut from forming the Modi 3.0 government. Regional parties like TMC, Samajwadi Party, Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party, and DMK performed well, highlighting the shift towards regionalism.
Surprisingly, the rise of regional parties is not only contained within the INDIA alliance. Even in the NDA alliance, regional parties like Telugu Desam Party, JDU, LJP, and other small regional parties did very well in the general elections, indicating the broader support for regional political forces once again.
Regional political parties were ruling the roost until 2014 for over 30 years. However, in the last 10 years, aggressive Hindutva politics, hyper-nationalism, and strong leadership under Narendra Modi successfully contained the electoral growth of regional forces. But after 10 years of Narendra Modi’s administration, which failed to meet the aspirations of the common man, there has been a resurgence of regional forces.
However, the journey of the regional parties will be challenging as they strive to maintain their newfound life in Indian politics. In the digital era, where caste and regional limitations are diminishing, regional parties should come up with a vision for the national agenda. If the regional parties limit their demands and politics only to their regions or states, it will undermine their rise.
As Indian society and the electorate become more well-informed due to the internet and social media, these regional parties need to develop a unified agenda for the country and policies for the central government. When forming alliances with national parties like Congress and BJP, regional parties should avoid appearing opportunistic. If the coalition government appears too fragmented, people might again prefer strong leadership from national parties.
The resurgence of regional forces in the country will pave the way for a more democratic and inclusive central government. Effective coalition governments at the center can balance the demands and aspirations of all parts of the country, unlike national party governments where their ruling states receive more funds and projects while ignoring opposition-run states.
If the coalition government manages well, disparity and discrimination among the states can be balanced and could lead to more equitable and effective governance benefiting all sections of society. But if these coalition governments fail to meet the aspirations and hopes of the people, the spirit will fade away soon, redirecting people towards strong leadership from national parties.
(About the Author: Dr. Manikya Mahesh has 17 years of media and public relations experience and is a senior research fellow with a PhD in Communication and Journalism Studies. He was also the public relations officer to ex-Telangana IT minister KT Rama Rao. The views expressed in this article are his own.)
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