There are two ways of looking at Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s latest declaration that the Indian troops would cross the Line of Control or LoC that divides the territories of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan. Now the state is defined by the two union territories of Ladakh, and J&K. It was primarily meant for Pakistan, but there was not so veiled messaging for China, too, which has developed its geostrategic and economic interests in Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir. In the recent past Chinese interests have deepened as the Sino-Paki friendship is strengthening day by day as their mutual dependence has grown in the fields of connectivity, economy and their geopolitical interests.
As it was obvious from the place and the timing of the Defence Minister’s statement, the warning was read vis-à-vis Pakistan, and this was substantiated when Pakistan reacted furiously and promptly, calling it as “provocative” and also a threat to regional stability and peace. The Minister had made this statement, during his speech at Drass War Memorial, devoted to the bravery of the Indian troops who made supreme sacrifice while evicting Pakistan army regulars, guised as militants, from the heights on the Indian side of the LoC that they had occupied in the winter of 1999 in preparation to cut India from its strategic locations, borders, including Siachen glacier in Ladakh region. The occasion was a celebration of the 24th Vijay Divas- Victory Day- of the Kargil war that was fought in the trans-Himalayan heights from May to July 1999.
During the Kargil War, when Indian troops were succeeding, against all odds, in recapturing and evicting Pakistani troops from the heights, India was under pressure from within the nation to teach Pakistan a lesson. There were passionate pleas to cross the LoC. That time, China’s articulated its stand quite eloquently, seeking the “maintenance of the sanctity of the LoC”. Its foreign office repeatedly articulated the official stand, ”the sanctity of the LoC should be maintained at all costs,” This was obviously a message for India, not to cross the borderline, as Pakistan had already violated that sanctity.
Pakistan’s part is well understood, and it has been analyzed time and again. There has been intense debate in strategic circles and also media about whether India should have crossed the LoC in 1999. Since it was not crossed, India’s prestige as a responsible nation, despite having nuclear weapons, and better a high degree of superiority in conventional warfare. At that time, it was a geo-strategic necessity for India to maintain its “no crossing of LoC” stance, because that would have put it on the same page on which Pakistan was- the violator of the bilateral agreement and international law. Moreover, India had to demonstrate that it was a responsible nuclear power, any escalation or widening of the war from the Kargil sector stretch would have had long-term and devastating consequences on the borders. Then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee kept the legitimacy of his “Lahore declaration” and the spirit of good neighbourly relations intact. And, strategically, had India crossed the LoC, the escalation as a result would have conformed Pakistani point, shared by some of the western nations, in particular the US that had imposed sanctions on India, that Kashmir is a nuclear flashpoint. That time Kargil was part of the Kashmir division- the separate UT of Ladakh, announced came into being on August 5, 2019, came into being on October 31st that year.
As of today, China’s interests in Gilgit-Baltistan and PoK have increased manifold. Now it is firmly in control of the highways, hydro-electric projects, and its flagship BRI project – China Pakistan Economic Corridor passes through the territories that originally belong to India, as per the instrument of accession that last Dogra king of Jammu and Kashmir Maharaja Hari Singh, acceding the whole of the state to India in October 1947.
India’s warning to Pakistan, by extension, is also a message for China that it should not take things for granted. Rajnath Singh made it clear that India could have crossed LoC at the time of the Kargil war, it can do now, and it will definitely do if Pakistan messes up with India. In reality, PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan territories are controlled by China as well.
China has not reacted to the minister’s statement so far- it is silent on the issue, but that doesn’t mean that it did not get the message.
| Posted by Sameer Khan | 
