As you sow, so shall you reap.
The crisis the West is facing in Ukraine is of one’s own making. There is absolutely no denying the fact that the United States, along with its European allies, had a long-term plan to systematically weaken the post-1991 rump Russia and if possible even further piece it into several parts. Now since the tide has turned the other way round, Russia is not only flexing its muscle but has also made China, the bête noire for the United States, its close ally.
Whatever may be the compulsion of Donald Trump, the truth is that there is lurking fear of Western hegemony withering away if the United States President insists on dissociating his country from war in Euro-Asia.
Does he know what will happen to the West if he decides to withdraw his country from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? Needless to remind the United States and Turkey are the two NATO members with the highest number of military personnel. Once the US is really out, Turkey may show little interest in this Western military alliance as it does not want to antagonize either Ukraine or Russia. In such a situation NATO may lose its significance.
The world may be a different place to live in if the Western powers across both sides of the Atlantic Ocean lose their domination over the rest of the globe.
The trio of the United States, NATO and Japan, in the words of Egyptian-born Marxist thinker Samir Amin (1931-2018) wanted ‘complete submission’ of post-Communist Russia. This was essential because without weakening Russia and breaking it into four parts, the Western hegemony all over the planet would not be possible.
As Iraq was after the First Gulf War of 1991 under the influence of the West and Afghanistan was about to come under its control, the further division of post-Soviet Union Russia would help encircle China, which economically and militarily, was showing signs of emerging as a strong nation. Three decades later it has become a real powerhouse and that too, unlike the Soviet Union and the US, without firing a single bullet.
Today, Donald Trump, like his predecessor Joe Biden, is struggling to tackle Beijing, which has increased its influence all over the world—from the deep interior of Africa to Latin America, which is just under the nose of the United States.
Expansion of NATO
Therefore, after making almost all the erstwhile countries of Warsaw Pact the NATO members, the former constituents of the then Soviet Union, for example the Baltic States of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania was included into this Western military alliance in 2004. Ukraine was next in the line.
The dismembered Russia was down in the dumps in the 1990s and was facing acute economic challenges. So, it waited for time to recover. Ukraine, which had till then the third largest nuclear arsenal after the US and Russia, had in 1994 agreed to denuclearize itself after security guarantees and compensation from Russia, the United States, and Britain. As per the Budapest Memorandum, these nuclear weapons were to be transferred to Russia to be dismantled. Belarus and Kazakhstan also agreed to give up the Soviet era nuclear weapons in their respective territories.
Now many in war-torn Ukraine regret that decision and accuse Russia of violating the Budapest Memorandum.
Western plan
The Western plan was somewhat identical to that of one adopted after World War I against Germany. But there is a difference. Germany was punished for daring to invade Western European empires having colonies across the planet. This heavy penalty on German people led to the birth of Adolf Hitler, who soon emerged as a popular leader in the country.
In contrast the US-led strategy was to slowly cripple Russia though it, unlike Germany, had not dared to attack the Western colonial masters like France, Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands, etc. Contrary to this, France under Napoleon attacked Russia in 1812—not to speak of the German invasion during two World Wars.
Not only in two World Wars, even in the 1870-71 war Germany had occupied a large chunk of territory of the powerful France. On the other hand, Russia or the Soviet Union had in the past got locked in conflict only with weak East European countries, Ottoman Turkey, and Finland. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Russia expanded eastwards to Central Asia. Even during the high time of the Communist Soviet Union, the latter did not directly confront the West.
After it lost the Cold War and disintegrated in December 1991 and the earlier dissolution (March 31, 1991) of the Warsaw Pact, there was absolutely no reason for the continuation of NATO, not to speak of its expansion up to the border of Russia. So, if Russia allegedly violated the Budapest Memorandum in 2014 and 2022, the West refused to disband NATO.
Warsaw Pact was a military agreement of East European Communist countries, which came up in 1955, that is, six years after the formation of NATO.
In the post-disintegration of the Soviet Union, NATO got engaged in military missions against Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Serbia. Now there is a plan to extend NATO to the Asia Pacific. So if Russia used the expansion of NATO up to Ukraine as an alibi to invade the latter, it has its point.
Trump’s strategy
Now that Trump is out to undo the past actions of the West, it is really difficult to predict the future. It is generally felt that his strategy is to take on China and distance Moscow from Beijing. It is easier said than done. The European countries are not so inclined to go on an all-out tariff war against China as they have their own interest. Russia too had a huge energy market in neighbouring China. So even if Moscow befriends Washington, it may not dance to the tune of Trump.
China, on the other hand, is not very keen to militarily confront the United States. Yes, it has its claim on Taiwan, yet it cannot be denied that these two countries are great trade partners. Beijing may undertake naval exercises in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, but unlike Japan in World War II, it is not eager to target the United States in the Pacific Ocean. Whimsical Trump may be aggressive against China on trade war, but is not keen to go for military showdown. Trump wants to pressure China to make a deal. Not to forget, during his first term he went all the way to Singapore and Hanoi to meet North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un. In the same way he invited Chinese President Xi Jinping on the occasion of the oath-taking on January 20, 2025.
A new world order may emerge if Ukraine in particular and Europe in general are really left in lurch, and the United States allowed to take its own independent way, which includes annexation of Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal. But will this happen? Nobody can guess.
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