Hyderabad: Karwan went into the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) with 3,83,190 electors. The draft roll published on August 17 carries 2,41,424, the largest surviving electorate of any Hyderabad Assembly seat. That leaves 1,41,766 names off the draft, or 37 in every 100 of the seat’s pre-revision roll, according to an analysis by Siasat.com.
That 37 in 100 is the second-lowest exclusion rate in Hyderabad, after Bahadurpura‘s 35.
Of those 1,41,766 electors flagged for removal, an estimated 54 in every 100 carry Muslim names.
These are not deletions. Not yet. The names are electors whose enumeration forms were not received, placed in the Absent, Shifted, Dead and Duplicate (ASDD) categories. Claims can be filed until October 7. Hearings run to November 5. The final roll is due on November 9.
How the 1.41 lakh break down
Shifted is the largest bucket, at 87,271. An estimated 57 in every 100 of them carry Muslim names, Siasat.com‘s analysis shows.
Absent accounts for 35,498, with an estimated 45 in every 100 electors carrying Muslim names. That 45 in 100 is the lowest of Karwan’s four buckets.
Dead voters account for 10,135 in the ASDD list. The Muslim-name estimate is about 59 in every 100.
Duplicate is the smallest bucket, at 8,862, with an estimated 63 in every 100 carrying Muslim names. That is the highest of the four, as it is in all 15 Hyderabad Assembly seats.
Against the 2023 election results
Kausar Mohiuddin of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has held Karwan since 2014. He won a third term in 2023 with 83,388 votes, defeating Amar Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by 41,986 votes. About 1.75 lakh votes were cast.
The 1,41,766 names now off the draft are more than three times that margin and 1.7 times the vote Mohiuddin polled to win. The flagged names amount to 81 in every 100 ballots cast in the seat in 2023.
Age of the flagged list
The flagged list is concentrated in the working-age group, Siasat.com‘s analysis shows. The largest group is those aged between 35 and 44, with 45,380 names, then 45 to 59 with 36,333 and 25 to 34 with 29,764. Electors aged 60 and above account for 23,710 and those aged 18 to 24 constitute 6,579.
Together, 75,144 names, just over half the list, are aged 25 to 44.
Among 25-to-34-year-olds, 19,352 are recorded as shifted, 8,298 as absent, 1,774 as duplicate and 340 as dead. Among 35 to 44, it is 29,768 shifted, 11,854 absent, 2,710 duplicate and 1,057 dead. Among 45 to 59, as many as 22,108 are marked shifted, 8,837 absent, 2,555 duplicate and 2,833 dead.
Shifted accounts for 65 in every 100 of the 25-to-44 age group.
Most of Karwan’s 8,862 duplicate entries sit in working age too. The 35-to-44-year-old group alone has 2,710 of them, the largest duplicate count in any age group in the seat.
Of the 6,579 electors aged 18 to 24, as many as 3,923 are recorded as shifted and 1,912 as absent. Among those aged 60 and above, 12,120 are recorded as shifted and 4,597 as absent, but 5,865 are recorded as dead.
Methodology and disclaimer
The estimates come from a name model run on the Election Commission’s English lists for Hyderabad. Each name returns a probability, not a label. Only group totals are published. They describe the composition of the flagged list.
Karwan’s 54 per cent sits in a range of roughly 48 to 60. Siasat.com‘s analysis takes this into account.
Electors left off the draft can file Form 6 until 7 October. Names on the ASDD list do not receive the notices issued to unmapped electors and those flagged for anomalies.
(This is Part 10 of a multi-part series on the analysis of the Telangana and Hyderabad SIR. Click to read Part 8 and Part 9. Stay tuned as we publish more)
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