Jammu and Kashmir will have Assembly elections from September 18 to October 1 to elect 90 legislators, the first after the revocation of Article 370 and the state’s bifurcation in August 2019.
The delay in holding new elections has been a contention for years. However, a recent Supreme Court directive was crucial in setting the timeline. Now that the elections are announced, political parties of all shades welcomed it.
Kashmir has been a significant source of conflict for a long time between India and Pakistan. Both countries claim Kashmir, although they only govern a part of it. Pakistan has even internationalised the issue, which has been brought to the United Nations.
In 2019, mixed reactions followed Modi’s decision to divide the state. This decision led to Kashmir losing its flag, criminal code, and constitutional protections. Government job opportunities for Kashmiris decreased and are now open to non-residents. Despite challenges, the state has seen both positive and negative changes. The Prime Minister’s initiatives have spurred development, and the growing interest of Gulf countries in investing in Jammu and Kashmir signals a promising future, bringing hope to the residents.
Decline in deaths
The Ministry of Home Affairs reports decreased security force casualties from 80 in 2019 to 33 in 2023 and a drop in civilian deaths from 44 in 2019 to 12 in 2023.
The last state elections were in 2014. The high voter turnout in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls has led to Assembly polls. In Kashmir, there was a historic 58.46% voter turnout in the parliamentary elections, a 30-point increase from the 2019 general election.
The government completed a delimitation exercise following the 2019 revocation of Article 370 and the bifurcation. The assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir increased from 87 to 114 after the 2022 delimitation, including 24 seats for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). This increase in seats could potentially shift the balance of power and influence the strategies of political parties in the upcoming elections.
BJP’s claim
The BJP claimed that the scrapping of Article 370 and their subsequent policies in Kashmir had developed the region for the better.
The recently concluded Lok Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir were a significant victory for Indian democracy. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the NC and PDP saw a resurgence. The election allowed them to revitalise their membership and bring long-standing issues to the forefront. Although the Congress did not secure any seats, the NC won two out of three, presenting a strong challenge for the third seat.
Despite the region’s history of terrorism and allegations of rigged elections, the polls were widely celebrated for the conduct of free and fair polls. The upcoming election will test the central government’s efforts to integrate Jammu and Kashmir more fully into the Indian Union after revoking the region’s special status under Article 370. It is also a test for the Election Commission to conduct polls without any violent incidents.
Preparations begin
The political parties have started preparing for the upcoming assembly elections, including campaign strategy, alliances, and candidate selection. The People’s Conference, Congress, Peoples Democratic Party, and National Conference met to plan for the elections. The political parties have started preparing for the upcoming assembly elections, including campaign strategy, alliances, and candidate selection. The People’s Conference, Congress, Peoples Democratic Party, and National Conference have all met at their party level to plan for the elections.
If the assembly elections are held as scheduled, the Valley will see a contest between the NC and the PDP. Moreover, the polarisation and separatist narrative that gained traction during the Lok Sabha elections will intensify and peak during the assembly elections.
The PDP leader and daughter of Mehbooba Mufti echoed the others. Other political parties, including the Congress, the BJP, the CPI (M), and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), welcomed the EC’s announcement.
In the 2014 Jammu and Kashmir elections, no party won a majority. Governor’s Rule was imposed for 49 days until PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti was appointed chief minister with BJP’s support. In 2018 the BJP withdrew from the ruling alliance, leading to the Governor’s Rule again. The assembly was dissolved in November 2018, and President’s Rule was imposed in December 2018. Since then, the governor’s Rule has been in the state.
Reorganisational plan
The government needs to decide whether to intervene in the Kashmir Valley to address soft separatism or consider a reorganisation plan before the elections.
During the parliamentary elections, Congress and the NC allied. The NC contested three seats in Kashmir, while Congress contested in Jammu and Udhampur. PDP, part of the INDIA Alliance, was not accommodated and fielded candidates on three seats in Kashmir against the National Conference.
For the upcoming Assembly polls, the scene is not explicit. Congress and NC might go together.
Omar mentioned that allying with the PDP would be difficult because they ran against each other in the parliament elections.
If the regional parties want to improve, they must unite, and the INDIA Bloc must collaborate. The Kashmir elections are crucial, and the entire country will observe a popular government’s rise after a decade.
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