Opinion poll projects Congress majority in Karnataka

Vote share of Congress could rise from 38 pc in 2018 to 40.1 pc this time

New Delhi: An exclusive opinion poll conducted by ABP-CVoter in Karnataka in late March reveals that the Congress will probably win a majority of seats in the 224-seat Karnataka Assembly, which will go to the polls on May 10.

According to an analysis of the survey data, the vote share of the Congress could rise from 38 per cent in 2018 to 40.1 per cent this time. Compared to 80 seats in 2018, the ABP-CVoter survey projects the Congress to win between 115 and 127 seats.

The survey also reveals that the party is leading over rivals BJP and JD(S) in all the regions of Karnataka. Even in the old Mysore region, which has been a stronghold of the JD(S), the Congress is projected to edge ahead of its rival while the BJP is projected to perform very poorly in this region.

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Using scientific random sampling techniques, the survey interacted with around 25,000 respondents across all demographics, age groups and identities.

According to the survey, the BJP will probably lose the state by some distance. The vote share of the party could come down from 36 per cent in 2018 to 34.7 per cent this time. The drop in vote share is small, but the projected loss of seats is far higher.

From 104 seats in 2018, the party is projected to win between 68 and 80 seats, far behind the Congress. Contrary to what some political analysts say, the JD(S) will not be decimated or wiped out, as per the survey. The vote share of the party remains virtually the same at 18 per cent while the number of seats won drops from 37 in 2018 to between 23 and 35 seats this time.

If the initial ABP-CVoter poll projections hold true, the Congress could be in a position to form the government on its own in Karnataka like it had done in 2013.

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