Rahul Gandhi is making his entry to Jammu and Kashmir on Tuesday to assess Congress’ status and stature in the union territory ahead of the Assembly polls, apparently to stitch a pre-poll alliance with like-minded parties, preferably the National Conference that was its partner of choice in the Lok Sabha elections early this year. But this time, the visit is full of political landmines and he would have to tread cautiously to have an alliance ahead of the polls and at the same time save the national outlook of Congress.
The dynamics of J&K politics have changed, and so have the issues since the Lok Sabha elections. National Conference knew its limitations and its stakes were limited to the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, and Congress wanted to retain its ground in the Jammu region and Ladakh. While BJP won two seats against Congress candidates in Jammu’s two Lok Sabha constituencies – Udhampur-Doda, and Jammu-Reasi- National Conference won two out of three in the Valley. It won two seats of Anantnag-Rajouri and Srinagar, but that was of little consolation as the party’s vice president and former chief minister Omar Abdullah lost to an independent candidate in Baramulla constituency .
NC, however, could not keep its word in Ladakh where it could not get its votes for the Congress candidate, and one of its rebels Mohammad Haneefa contested as an independent candidate and won. This created a lot of misunderstanding between the two parties. National Conference did no service to itself by announcing that it won’t enter into any alliance with any of the parties in the Assembly elections. This created doubts in the minds of the Congress-led INDIA bloc in which the National Conference is one of the constituents. It also gave rise to speculations that this announcement conveyed a message to all that it is looking for a post-poll alliance with BJP, which is at power at the Centre. The announcement of no-alliance was to keep the BJP in good humour, the political observers noted it.
On second thought both NC president and Omar Abdullah stated that they would be open to alliance with like-minded parties provided the partymen gave its approval. In a real sense the whole decision-making process lies with Farooq and Omar, the rest of the party has no other option but to fall in line. That’s fact of life in the National Conference like all the family-run parties in the country.
Rahul Gandhi and Congress have their own compulsion to woo National Conference, but there are problems for the party too, especially on the issue of the restoration of Article 370 . National Conference is all out for the restoration of Article 370, and in its manifesto released on Monday, it pitched for the restoration of Article 370 and listed it as a long-term goal, but in the short-term it spoke of a resolution that it will pass in the Assembly, after the elections, to press for restoration while condemning its abrogation on August 5, 2019.
Congress, however, has its own compulsions, it wants NC by its side as an ally in the run up to the most crucial Assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir, which are being held after a long gap of 10 years- the last Assembly polls were held in November-December 2014 – and in which the greatest issue at stake is restoration of statehood. Congress is as passionate about the restoration of statehood as other non-BJP parties in J&K and the rest of the country, but it is having its own political limitations on reversing the ongoing status of J&K after the abrogation of Article 370. The abrogation of Article 370 has a widespread approval of the Indian nation, where the majority community of Hindus believe that the said provision was against the national interest and created barriers between the erstwhile state and the rest of India. Congress doesn’t want to become a partner in reversing the August 5, 2019 decision, for it has its implications at the national level.
Rahul Gandhi, during his speeches, at the time of the conclusion of first phase of Bharat Jodo Yatra had spoken of the restoration of the statehood for J&K but stayed mum over the Article 370’s status . Now since the abrogation of Article 370 has been upheld as legal and constitutional by the Supreme Court in December 2023, Congress doesn’t want to be seen on the side of pro-Article 370 restoration political ideology.
It is expected that Rahul Gandhi, during his J&K visit would try to iron out the differences in a way that it saves its position in the political frame of the nation, especially when it is faced with the elections in three other states- Haryana and yet to be announced polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
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