Second half of southwest monsoon ‘very likely to be normal’: IMD

Amravati: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half (August to September) of the southwest monsoon season is very likely to be normal.

The rainfall would be 94 to 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) and most probably be on the negative side of normal, the IMD said in a statement issued by the Director of the Meteorological Centre in Amaravati, Samuel Stella.

During the second half of the southwest monsoon season, normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of subdivisions adjacent to or along the Himalayas, east-central India, and some parts of east and northeast India, the IMD said.

The MeT Department added that below-normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of peninsular India, and western parts of northwest and central India.

The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole for August this year is very likely to be below normal, which is below 94 per cent of the Long Period Average.

During August 2023, normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of subdivisions adjacent to or along the Himalayas, east-central India, and some parts of east and northeast India, the weather department said.

The IMD said that below-normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the southern Peninsula and many parts of western parts of northwest and central India.

During August above normal monthly maximum temperatures are very likely over most parts of the south Peninsula, east and northeast India, and many areas of western parts of northwest and central India, the Met department said.

Normal to below normal maximum temperatures are most likely over some areas of north peninsular India, east-central India and along the plains of the Himalayas, it added.

The IMD also added that during August, above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of India except some parts of northwest India where below-normal minimum temperatures are likely.

On El Nino conditions, the IMD said that currently weak El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest MMCFS and other climate models indicate that the El Niño conditions are likely to intensify further and continue upto early next year.

At present neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate models forecast indicates that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the remaining part of the monsoon season.

IMD will issue the forecast outlook for the monthly rainfall and temperatures for the September by end of August 2023, it said.