Shining outlook for gold in 2023

Chennai: As in 2022, gold is expected to log double-digit gains this year as per indications, said experts.

“The yellow metal has already posted over three percent gains in the month of January 2023. The current setup seems to indicate a re-run of 2022. Gold seems to be poised to open a new chapter in terms of its price trajectory,” Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report.

According to Quantum Mutual Fund report, gold started the new year on a cheery note, up about six percent in January in dollar terms and about four percent in rupee terms.

Underpinning the rally was an annual inflation in the US slowing for a sixth straight month to 6.5 percent in December, raising hopes of smaller rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in Q1’23 and rate cuts later in the year, Quantum Mutual Fund said.

In the last one year, gold purchases in the international markets were about 4,000 tonne of which 1,400 tonnes took place in the last quarter, said Emkay Global.

Apart from institutional buying, jewelry demand in China revived with the Covid restrictions being relaxed there. China is one of the biggest consumers of gold, accounting for over 30 percent of global jewelry demand, Emkay Global said.

“The yellow metal benefitted from a softer USD environment and lower US Treasury yields. Physical demand from China during the Lunar New Year celebrations, central bank gold buying, and an increase in net long positioning in gold by global money managers also supported prices, a Quantum Mutual Fund said.

The general expectation that there will be a slowdown in economic activity in the major economies also is helping gold though the high inflation never propelled gold to higher levels, said Emkay Global.

In India, with a duty cut now out of the picture for the foreseeable future, down moves in gold on account of that are no longer expected. But prices could see some headwinds from developments on the US monetary policy front. Investors can stagger their purchases over the next few months to build their gold allocation, Quantum Mutual Fund said.