Chance is a more appropriate word because it is neutral. Luck means good luck unless one qualifies it with the adjective bad.
Chance can be defined as an event that does not follow the cause-and-effect principle because an event that has a prior cause is predictable and cannot be called chance.
According to all indications, the physical universe follows the cause-and-effect principle. Nothing happens by chance. Whatever happens, is the result of something that happened earlier.
Chance can only be a specific decision by the all-knowing and all-powerful being without following the cause-and-effect principle. Being all-powerful, He can do whatever He likes, whenever He likes, and wherever He likes. He is not bound by any principle or rule.
Being all-knowing nothing is a chance for Him. Chance is really his decision and what is a decision is not a chance. In a universe where everything is by his specific, intervention and decision, there is no principle and no cause-and-effect event. Man cannot understand anything about such a random universe. Man can only understand principles and outcomes based on principles.
Fortunately, we know from our experience and discoveries that this is not a random universe that we live in. Things happen according to principles because this is the way that the all-powerful Being has made it. As man has made discoveries and increased his knowledge of the universe, he is able to predict more and more. Many things that were earlier thought of as random are now predictable.
For example, in ancient days the appearance of comets and eclipses was thought to be random. But by keeping records, and using a telescope man can now predict the next appearance of a comet even if it is once in 400 years. The same is true of eclipses. Astronomers can predict eclipses for the next thousand years.
Today what was once thought of as chance, for example, sudden deaths, storms, earthquakes, and lightning have become much more predictable.
Technology for detecting metal fatigue can find out developing problems in machines and airplanes and remedial measures can be taken to avoid an accident. What was earlier a chance accident has now become more predictable.
Today finding underground water, oil and minerals is less a matter of chance thanks to increased knowledge and better technology.
Buildings don’t collapse so much in an earthquake as they used to. That is because knowing that certain areas are prone to earthquakes, experts have laid down construction codes that can withstand earthquakes better and reduce the loss of human lives.
Today technology has reduced car accidents. As you are backing a car its sensors can warn you that the car is approaching or you are getting too close to the wall or an object. When on the road the car’s sensors can warn you that you are too close to another car and it can even automatically brake to avoid an accident. All you have to do is to maintain your car and its sensors properly.
Regular blood tests and other diagnostic techniques can detect growing health problems. Treatment can be taken to avoid the sudden unexpected end of life. Regular medical checkups today have increased life expectancy and reduced sudden deaths. Quick ambulance facilities reduce deaths in case of accidents.
Thomas Hardy’s poem “The Convergence of the Titanic” is very relevant to chance accidents. After saying that in one place Titanic was being constructed, and in another place thousands of miles away the iceberg was developing and their chance collision was something “no mortal eye could see.” Of course, Hardy wrote this poem in 1912, just days after the sinking of the Titanic when neither radars nor GPS was available. Today with GPS keeping an eye on every movement such an accident would be unthinkable. Today GPS and radars help avoid innumerable accidents which would have otherwise taken place.
What about the fact that when you are walking suddenly there is thunder and lightning and you are stuck? Isn’t that a chance? First lightning is not a chance; it has a cause for its buildup. Secondly, your being at the place was not a chance but your decision. A decision is not a chance. It has a cause. But being struck by lightning was a chance only because we still don’t have systems in place to make more accurate predictions about lightning and its locations. When that is achieved lightning would be less of a chance.
But what about cards and lottery? Isn’t that a matter of chance? There are two aspects to it. Can a computer if all data was fed into it predict a hand of cards or a lottery number? One is the conceptual aspect, the other practical. One could argue that an all-knowledge super supercomputer could predict the hand of cards or a lottery number. But practically it is impossible to create a computer system that can assimilate all the required information and forecast a lottery number or card distribution. The world and the universe, are finite. With this finite world and universe, it doesn’t seem possible to create a computer that can predict cards and lottery tickets.
As for the cards over a period of time, everyone gets similar cards. Being a winner or a loser depends on ability at the game and no luck.
As for the lottery, we cannot say that he is lucky. At best we can say that he was lucky. Being lucky once in a lottery does not mean that a person is lucky. To be lucky, you must be lucky again and again. Further, no one can depend on repeated luck. Hard work, is a more reliable road to success than chance.
In our daily life, fortunate or unfortunate coincidences are irrelevant. Nothing will be gained or lost if we ignore lucky and unlucky chances. We live in a world that functions on the basis of cause and effect.
Ninety-five times out of 100 success is effort. Knowledge and information reduce unpredictability. Instead of speculating over luck, predestination, etc. we should learn, know and understand. We can achieve success through hard work and we will get nowhere by trying to discover the secret of luck.
If the rate of chance has come down because of human effort then it could have been only because the all-knowing and all-powerful being wants it to be so. The chance rate of accidents is a decision of the all-powerful being and cannot be reduced by human effort. If things happen because the universe is made that way then knowledge should increase predictability.
No doubt that the rate of accidents has gone down. Does it mean that the rate of chance has changed? How can the rate of chance change by itself? If there is such a thing as chance, then its rate should remain constant. Of course, one can say that the all-powerful being has changed the chance rate. But why? If there are no principles and we bring in the all-powerful being in everything then there is no argument. Everything is his decision and everything is luck and there is no cause-and-effect.
As the physical universe exists, conceptually there is nothing that is a chance event. Every event is preceded by a cause. It is a different matter that human beings still do not have enough knowledge to predict accurate events all the time. This is clear from the example of the weather forecasts though the same applies to all events.
To correctly forecast everything we must have an all-knowledge computer. We do not have it, perhaps never will. But that does not mean that events happen by chance without a cause.
Ishrat Aziz is an expert on a variety of subjects including democracy and its connectivity with Islam. A former ambassador of India to several Middle Eastern countries, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, he now resides in the US.
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