US election-victory in debate no guarantee of election win for Kamala Harris

Is the average American voter ready to accept a woman President? Will the liberal and secular Americans win over the conservative? Will migrant issues have a say in the November Presidential elections?

Former President and Republican Donald Trump is the only United States Presidential candidate to take on a woman nominee of the rival party, not once but twice. In 2016 it was Hillary Clinton and eight years later he is up against Kamala Harris.

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat candidate outperformed Trump in the debates in 2016 but lost the election. In terms of votes she got about 2.9 million more than her Republican rival. Overall, Trump won 304 electoral colleges against Hillary’s 227, out of total 538 to become the President.

In 2024 too, the general perception is that Kamala Harris came out victorious in the debate. It has brought a sigh of relief in the Democratic Party camp after President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in the first debate on June 27 last. On July 21 Biden finally decided not to contest again, leaving the space for
Vice President Kamala Harris.

Premature to Conclude

Though, on the basis of September 11 debate many political pundits are of the view that Kamala would win, it would be premature to jump to that conclusion. The liberals might be claiming that Kamala successfully highlighted her party’s stand on abortion and other issues related to race and gender yet the fact is that the conservative Americans, whose numbers are substantial, look at the things in a
totally different way. They hate feminism and all sorts of rights to LGPTQ community and are against abortion. Though the same sex marriage did not come up in the debate, on the issue of abortion Trump was blunt and forthright knowing that his supporters are fully behind him.

Let it be known that the United States, which claims, to be the oldest and modern democracy, is yet to elect a female President—Biden is the 46th one. However, the number of woman governors is currently 12 , out of total 50 states—four of them are Republicans and eight Democrats.

A close study of the debates involving Trump reveals that he has performed better when his rival is a male, especially Joe Biden. On June 27 he bulldozed a totally off colour Biden. Short on valid points but high on rhetoric and single-liners he Trump ridiculed and outsmarted Biden more comfortably than Hillary and Harris.

On September 11 he was lacking the aggressiveness of the June 27 debate. He was repeatedly referring to Biden, prompting Kamala Harris to say that the contest was not against the President, but her.

The view of liberal and secular Americans of coastal United States, especially of north-east and west, are different from many of those living in the Bible belt of the heartland of the country, where people still root for Christian values and family life.

How Different From Europe?

The American society is somewhat different from that of Europe. This continent has produced a number of women heads of government. Even the rightist parties in France and Italy are led by women. The relatively conservative Britain has seen three woman Prime Ministers, two in quick succession recently. Coincidentally, all three were from Conservative Party.

The ground situation in Europe suited the growth of feminism in the 19th century. The large scale migration of males to colonies in America, Africa and Asia brought women out of their homes. The advent of Industrial Revolution during the same period led to the shortage of hands compelling women to take up jobs. So the first wave of feminist movement started around mid-19th century. Some women demanded the rights to property and vote. But that had little impact.

Actually, the two World Wars in 20th century brought women to the centrestage of European politics. Some 7-8  crore Europeans died in these two Wars, 2.7 crore in the then Soviet Union alone. An overwhelming number of those killed, injured and maimed were men, forcing women to fill the jobs in a 

large number. It was during the immediate post-World war-I years that women of the west actually started getting voting rights.

France, which witnessed Revolution in 1789, gave their women the voting right only after it got free from the German occupation in 1944. 

So, it was the circumstances which brought women out from their homes in Europe. Had the two World Wars not taken place perhaps the progressive idea would not have yielded result.

Voters’ Dilemma

In contrast, the US did not face any such massive upheaval. Instead, it attracted huge migrant population, especially in the 20th century. So, the women-folk in the United States were not compelled by the circumstances to come out to work. Thus, the process of what is called women’s emancipation was not as fast as in Europe. 

Curiously, the new migrants from different countries adopted the progressive ideas more easily than those living in the villages or small towns. They were more tilted towards the policies of the Democratic Party. 

Thus, there are more followers of Christian values and family life in the United States than in West Europe. They are traditionally Republican voters and followers of Evangelism. Trump may be in practice far removed from the Christian values, yet he certainly claims to be its champion. 

Unlike in India, the rightist party, that is Republican, does not get the same amount of media coverage, or at least it is alleged by its leaders, including Trump. In such a situation it is somewhat easy to whip up passion against outsiders. That he did on September 11 debate too. 

The problem with the Democratic Party is that its stand on abortion, same sex marriage, feminism etc are so extreme that many of its voters prefer to maintain distance. On the issue of Gaza too there is not much difference between the two parties.

Republicans have their own quota of problems. Many of their traditional supporters do not fully appreciate Trump and his behaviour and his questionable record. Besides, they do not approve of the January 6, 2021 insurrection.

However, there is always a latent fear of a Republican backlash if the performance of Harris is projected too much in the media.

Trump would interpret it as a conspiracy against him.

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