The fire within the Uttar Pradesh unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be acquiring inextinguishable proportions with the leaders blaming each other for the shock defeat in the just concluded Lok Sabha election in the state.
In the name of reviewing the poll outcome they are indulging in mud-slinging and not reaching at the right conclusion. They have not learned any lesson from the past when differences within the BJP and
Samajwadi Party led to the humiliating ouster of Kalyan Singh in 1999 and the rout of Akhilesh Singh Yadav in the 2017 election.
The state appears to be heading towards the 1999-like situation when the National Democratic Alliance won the post-Kargil War election, but the BJP’s tally was reduced to half—from 58 in the previous election of 1998 to 29. (The undivided UP then used to have 85 seats). The then chief minister Kalyan Singh, otherwise the hero of Babri Masjid demolition was shown the door immediately after the dismal performance of the saffron party in the election. Kalyan was the chief minister of the state on December 6, 1992, when the mosque was razed to the ground.
Yogi may go Kalyan’s way
Similarly, Hindu Hriday Samrat Yogi Adityanath is being cornered after the party’s poor show in the election held just after the consecration of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, where too the party lost.
So, if the simmering tension between the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Kalyan Singh let down the party in an otherwise favorable post-Kargil atmosphere, the cold war between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Yogi this time may lead to the ouster of Uttar Pradesh CM. Even if this does not happen and Yogi manages to survive, an amicable solution is not in sight. Needless to remind, the BJP lost the 2002 Assembly election and could regroup itself and win again only 12 years later in 2014 Lok Sabha election.
In between the humiliated and dejected Kalyan went to the extent of joining hands with arch-rival Mulayam, whom he had in the past accused of massacring Kar Sevaks in Ayodhya.
Divided house
The fact is that the Uttar Pradesh BJP has been a divided house ever since March 11, 2017, when the party, with its allies, won a historic 320-odd seats in the House of 403. Yogi staged a revolt and virtually snatched the post of chief minister from Manoj Sinha, then a Union minister, and the first choice of the party high command. Sinha is a Bhumihar while Yogi is a Rajput. But as the saying goes “Jo Jeeta So Sikandar” (The one who wins is the real victor), everything was swept under the carpet.
The most significant aspect of this unexpected big BJP victory was often overlooked. Till the first week of November 2016, there was near unanimity among the independent political pundits that the incumbent chief minister Akhilesh Singh Yadav would return to power as he undertook some ambitious developmental works and toned up the administrative machinery.
But two developments in quick succession poured cold water on his prospect. That was the open family feud between father and SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and son Akhilesh. The latter’s step-mother and uncle Shivpal Yadav were with the Netaji while another uncle Ram Gopal Yadav was with the chief minister. At one point of time Mulayam even expelled his CM son and Ram Gopal from the party but soon took them back.
A video went viral showing as to how Akhilesh snatched mike from his father in one such meeting.
The second development that put paid to Akhilesh’s plan was demonetization announced on November 8, 2016, which threw everything haywire when the Assembly election was due just three months away.
While Akhilesh accused Amar Singh for fomenting trouble Mulayam, after the election defeat, held his son responsible for whatever had happened. He quoted PM Narendra Modi’s election speech “One who is not loyal to his father cannot be loyal to anyone else.” UP-watchers then observed a softening of Mulayam’s stand toward Modi, whose victory he blessed ahead of the 2019 parliamentary election.
Amar Singh, then Samajwadi Party-backed Independent Rajya Sabha MP, openly hailed the demonetization move and criticized Akhilesh’s decision to tie up with Congress.
The post-Balakot strike Lok Sabha election in 2019 further consolidated the BJP’s position notwithstanding the Samajwadi Party forming an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party.
The favorable atmosphere continued in the post-Corona Assembly election held in early 2022, though the Samajwadi Party fought back to increase its tally from 47 to 110. The crack in the saffron camp appeared visible, but they were soon papered over by the Sangh Parivar bigwigs.
Akhilesh-Rahul deadly combination
Now that the same Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance clicked this time in contrast to the duo’s humiliating show in the 2017 Assembly election, the BJP cannot afford to be complacent.
The history of powerful ruling parties losing elections in 2002 and 2017 should be vivid in the mind of the BJP rank and file in UP. Akhilesh Singh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi can no longer be dismissed as “do ladke” (two boys). They have shown enormous maturity to inflict a devastating blow to the saffron brigade in their strongest bastion.
With both Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh no more alive and Uncle Azam Khan in jail, the old guards of the SP have virtually conceded to the new reality. Shivpal is now at the party and has no problem with his nephew whom he too had brought up after the demise of the latter’s mother.
The marginalization of Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party and the shift of a huge chunk of Dalit votes to the SP-Congress alliance have made the task more difficult for the BJP, which lost a considerable hold on the backward castes in the just concluded election. That is why deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Mourya is more vocal. Political observers are of the view that he is in the race for the post of CM, if the party plans to replace Yogi.
But the party’s top leadership cannot wish away Yogi, a prominent upper caste face, as a strong section of RSS sees him as the future PM prospect of the saffron camp. Thus, the BJP is caught in a bind.
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