With the first phase of elections due on April 19 uncertainty seems to be gripping All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen in Bihar. On the other hand, it is not yet clear as to how many seats would it be fighting in Uttar Pradesh where it has recently tied up with Pallavi Patel faction of Apna Dal, and a couple of little-known parties.
Confusion started on April 5 when the Times of India, quoting the Bihar unit president of AIMIM, Akhtar-ul-Iman, said that his party would be contesting only from Kishanganj in the state. Akhtar himself is the candidate of the party. He is the lone MLA of AIMIM and had fought the 2019 parliamentary election too in which he ended up third.
However, another media report published on the same day said that AIMIM had withdrawn from the contest in two out of four seats of Seemanchal region of Bihar, which has a sizeable Muslim population.
Later, on the same day a Facebook post quoting Akhtar said that his party would be fielding candidates in 13 and not 15 seats, that is it is withdrawing from the contest in Purnea and Katihar, both in Seemanchal.
It is not clear whether the party would be withdrawing from Araria, the fourth seat of Seemanchal. The name of a cleric is doing the round in the social media. Election for the four seats of this region would be held on April 26. Earlier, AIMIM had already withdrawn its candidate from Gaya, where election is scheduled on April 19 that is the first phase.
When this correspondent reached out to Engineer Aftab Ahmed a trusted lieutenant of Akhtar-ul-Iman, to clear the picture he replied that his party is at present only concentrating on Kishanganj. He confirmed that AIMIM is not fielding its candidates in Gaya SC reserved seat as announced earlier as well as Purnea and Katihar.
Regarding the party’s position in the rest 32 seats which go to poll in the next five phases he repeated that at present the focus is only on Kishanganj.
Support to Hina Shahab
Aftab Ahmed also made it clear that his party would extend support to Hina Shahab, the widow of late Mohammad Shahabuddin, don-turned-RJD MP, from Siwan, if she contests as Independent. He also clarified that she would not be AIMIM nominee.
The contradiction raises a serious question: If AIMIM is withdrawing from Purnea and Katihar, both having sizeable Muslim population, what sense it makes in contesting in other seats where the community has very small presence?
Commenting on extending support to Hina Shahab, Patna-based social activist Afzal Husain, who is originally from Siwan, said: “During the bad time of Shahabuddin when he was in jail no AIMIM leader ever issued a single statement. Now they are talking of supporting his widow. Shahabuddin died in Tihar Jail during the second wave of pandemic in 2021.
Anyway, it is meaningless to throw one’s lot behind Hina now as she had lost three successive elections in 2009, 2014 and 2019 as RJD candidate and when Shahabuddin was still alive.
Political observers are of the view that the state unit of AIMIM is sending mixed signals only because of intense pressure from Muslim community which wants it not to field candidates. There is hardly any organizational structure of AIMIM outside Seemanchal, in particular Kishanganj, which has over 75% Muslim voters.
The state leadership is talking about contesting 13 seats under the pressure from other side, that is the central leadership based in Hyderabad. The ground situation in Bihar is very difficult, especially after 2020 Assembly election, in which the party was blamed for ensuring defeat of about a half a dozen RJD and Congress candidates.
The Grand Alliance narrowly lost that election, thanks to the role played by AIMIM. Not surprisingly, four out of the five victorious AIMIM MLAs crossed over to the RJD a few months later leaving Akhtar high and dry.
The truth was that these four legislators were actually RJD and Congress leaders who got the AIMIM ticket after they were denied by their own respective parties. So once after winning the election they returned to the RJD.
Apart from Akhtar-ul-Iman, who is a two-time RJD MLA, there is nobody worth mentioning in Bihar unit of AIMIM. According to Akhtar himself, he too has been requested several times by RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav to return to his party fold. But it remains a mystery as to what is compelling him to stay with Asaduddin Owaisi’s party?
It needs to be mentioned that after deserting RJD he got Lok Sabha ticket from Kishanganj from Janata Dal (United) In 2014. JD (U) then contested in alliance with the CPI. But a couple of days before
the polling day Akhtar announced his withdrawal from the battle in favour of Congress party’s Maulana Asrar-ul-Haq Qasmi.
This left Nitish Kumar furious as by now he could not put up any other candidate. Ahead of the 2015 assembly election Akhtar joined AIMIM. So, he has a long history of flip-flop. One may not know till the end as to how many AIMIM candidates are really contesting in Bihar this time.
UP scenario
In Uttar Pradesh the scenario is similarly confusing. The party has joined hands with the breakaway faction of Apna Dal, a party formed by late Sone Lal Patel, a Kurmi leader of eastern part of the state. Sone Lal was in his initial days associated with Kanshi Ram, founder of the Bahujan Samaj Party.
However, a few years after his death in a car accident in 2009, Apna Dal got split with Anupriya Patel faction joining hands with the BJP. She is MP from Mirzapur and a minister in the Narendra Modi cabinet. Her sister Pallavi, who enjoyed the backing of her mother Krishna, fought UP Assembly election in alliance with the Samajwadi Party in 2022.
A few weeks back Pallavi snapped ties with SP and allied with AIMIM. It was then also a constituent of INDIA.
Though this combination of AIMIM, breakaway faction of Apna Dal, and a couple of other smaller parties is not going to win any seat UP-watchers fear that it has the potential to damage the poll prospect of Samajwadi Party and Congress in a handful of seats.
So, as in Bihar in UP the strategy is to inflict blows on Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. This is happening at a time when AIMIM is confronting a big challenge at the home turf of Hyderabad where its alliance partner Bharatiya Rashtriya Samiti is facing large-scale desertion. Muslims of Telangana are largely inclined towards Congress.
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