More than the Congress Party it was the defeat of the journalistic fraternity and political pundits of all hue and colour in Haryana as almost all of them had till 10:00 on October 8 morning been predicting a
big win for the Grand Old Party. So, they cannot wash their hands off by criticizing Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and state satrap Bhupinder Singh Hooda immediately after the results were out.
While some seasoned political commentators used the expression Congress tsunami likely to sweep Haryana, many others considered close to the Bharatiya Janata Party—and even the saffron party’s rank and file—were of the view that the incumbent government was bound to lose.
One should not take into account the Exit Polls as they have failed several times in the past. But why is it that the entire media failed to read the mood of the people? This had hardly happened in the past.
Surprises have come in the past too, but not of such magnitude. How can a party that was about to be swept out of power by a tsunami manage to increase its tally by eight seats? Even in the high times of 2014 and 2019, the BJP has not won so many seats alone.
Three conclusions
This brings us to at least three conclusions. Firstly, to accept the Congress allegation that it is a victory of ‘Tantra’ (Machinery) and not ‘Loktantra’ (Democracy) that is the election has been rigged very scientifically. The media persons are not going to accept this accusation.
Secondly, one can say that all the poll pundits have lost their credibility as they have failed to read the mood of the people of the state so close to Delhi. And that too when it is developed and among the most urbanized ones.
One among those who had used the expression Congress tsunami sweeping Haryana was Yogendra Yadav who, after the result, conceded that he had failed and that too in his home state. But he is among the top political poll experts who have seldom gone wrong. His prediction for the recently concluded Lok Sabha election was bang on target, especially in Uttar Pradesh. Then, how can he go so wrong?
Haryana poll crucial for BJP
What many people are ignoring is that the Haryana election was extremely important for the Bharatiya Janata Party after its poor performance in the parliamentary election last summer. A defeat here would have come as a morale-shattering development for the saffron brigade which may not fare well in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. The BJP feared that the defeat in Haryana may trigger a countdown. It was not for nothing that election in Haryana was deliberately preponed and not contested along with Maharashtra as in 2014 and 2019. The BJP wanted to test its latest strategy. Mind it, the BJP’s top brass, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, hardly campaigned here. Yet, the party left no stone unturned to win it. This aspect cannot be overlooked.
Final 40 hours
Thirdly, what many experts fail to appreciate is that the mood of the people changes in the final 38-40 hours before the start of polling. Thus, the real campaign for the October 5 Haryana election started after the electioneering ended on October 3 evening. Cadre-based parties, in particular like the BJP, use all the means—may be fair or foul—in the last 38-40 hours to woo voters. Money-power, distribution of liquor and whisper campaigns are the factors generally used by many parties to change the prevailing mood at the final moment. No media person is there to observe what is happening underground.
For example, let us take the Jat factor which now the same political pundits are claiming is responsible for letting down the Congress. But why did these journalists and writers not take this factor into account before jumping to the conclusion that Congress is going to win and win in a big way?
Honestly speaking, Bhupinder Hooda cannot be accused of brazenly playing the Jat card as Chautalas and their patriarch former chief minister Devi Lal used to do. Then why do anti-Jat feelings not work? AJGAR (Ahir, Jat, Gujjar, and Rajput) caste formula was floated in the late 1980s by the Janata Dal of V P Singh and Devi Lal in North India. The Congress party was bitten by AJGAR (a snake)
and thus lost the election in November 1989.
Has the Jat of 2024 suddenly become so militant and intolerant that the rest 35 castes ganged up against it?
No, not at all. Yes, the Jats’ aggressive demand for reservations in 2016 in which many people lost their lives, isolated them. But the Jats of Haryana are not the only dominant caste demanding quota. Patels
of Gujarat and Marathas of Maharashtra had done the same. Then why they could not be isolated?
Herein lies the answer. As the Congress suddenly emerged strong in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and started showing the same sign in the Assembly poll the BJP was left with no option but to play the exclusionist card. Fortunately or unfortunately the Congress has an influential Jat leader, Bhupinder Singh Hooda. The BJP thus finds it suitable to secretly launch the whisper campaign at the fag end of the electioneering against this caste.
In the 2019 election, the BJP could not launch a massive campaign to demonize Jats as the saffron party had to make a deal with Jannayak Janata Party of Dushyant Chautala, who was made the deputy chief
minister.
This time it had an opportune moment to outcast Jats as an overwhelming number of them had shifted to the Congress as Chautalas had grown weak.
Congress strategy
The Congress strategy was perfect when it highlighted the cause of farmers, women wrestlers, and Agniveers. It would be wrong to say, as many journalists feel, that farmers and Jats are synonyms for each other. Ahirs, Rajputs, and even some Brahmins have farming land. Yes, Jats’ representation in the army was substantial but that does not mean that non-Jats of the state were not affected by Agniveer policy.
To woo Dalit voters the Congress party strongly raised the issue of BJP’s strategy to amend the Constitution. That is why it won nine SC reserved seats against eight by the BJP.
The ‘turncoats’ in the media should explain what Congress should have done when the Jats were switching over to its side in large numbers. Should it turn them away? The argument that the Congress lost due to infighting was equally absurd as the BJP was much more a divided house. Former minister Anil Vij was creating problems by staking claim for the post of chief minister till the last moment.
There was widespread discontent in the saffron camp when the party dropped the names of many senior legislators. There was turmoil in the Haryana BJP before the poll. Yet it surprisingly won.
The Congress failed to counter the silent demonization, not just isolation, of Jats.
The BJP might have won the election but in the long run, the policy of exclusion is not good. In the absence of Muslims, who form a small number in Haryana, the Jats had to pay this price. In UP and Bihar Yadavs too had to face this political exclusion.
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