At first glance, Iran appears no match for the United States. It cannot compete dollar for dollar with the American economy, nor can it rival the scale and sophistication of US military power. Washington’s defence spending dwarfs Tehran’s, and its technological edge – from stealth aircraft to precision-guided weapons – remains formidable. Yet, as the conflict stretches beyond a month, the emerging picture is far more complex, challenging long-held assumptions about how power operates in modern warfare.
Despite sustained strikes by the United States and Israel, Iran’s core military capabilities do not appear to have been decisively degraded. While damage has certainly been inflicted, Tehran continues to demonstrate resilience and the ability to respond. It continues to punch above its weight.
Rather than retreating, it has answered pressure with calibrated retaliation, signalling that it remains an active and capable player in the conflict.
A striking development that underscores this reality is Iran’s reported success in targeting American aircraft. Recent reports confirm that a US fighter jet was shot down over Iranian territory, the first such loss in this conflict. One crew member was rescued, while another remains missing.
Such incidents show that even the most advanced air forces are not immune in contested environments.
These developments do not overturn the overall military balance, but they do complicate the narrative of overwhelming dominance. They point instead to a more contested battle space, where risks are real and outcomes less predictable.
As the old proverb goes, it is not the size of the dog in the fight that matters, but the size of the fight in the dog. In many ways, this captures the spirit of Iran’s approach – compensating for material limitations with resolve, strategy and calculated risk-taking.
It’s all in the geography
So how is Iran able to call the shots? How is it able to hold its ground against a far superior adversary?
The answer lies not in weaponry, but in geography. Iran’s location gives it a strategic advantage that cannot easily be neutralised. At the centre of this advantage is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies flow. This chokepoint is one of the most critical arteries of the global economy. As someone rightly said, Iran sits on the world’s energy jugular.
By virtue of its proximity to this corridor, Iran possesses a powerful lever. It does not need to completely shut down the strait to exert influence. Even the credible threat of disruption is enough to rattle global markets, drive up oil prices and create economic uncertainty far beyond the region. In effect, Iran has turned geography into a strategic asset – transforming a shipping lane into a pressure point.
This reveals a broader shift in the nature of power. Iran’s influence in this conflict is not based on conventional military superiority, but on its ability to impose costs disproportionately – economically, politically and psychologically. It has demonstrated that a state can shape outcomes not by matching strength directly, but by exploiting vulnerabilities in interconnected systems.
Impact of low-cost, high-impact technologies
The conflict also highlights the limits of military superiority. Advanced technology and air dominance can deliver tactical successes, but they do not automatically translate into decisive strategic outcomes, especially when the adversary is adaptive and willing to fight on multiple fronts, including economic and geopolitical ones.
Equally important is the role of relatively low-cost, high-impact technologies. Drones, missiles and air defence systems, far cheaper than advanced fighter jets, can offset the advantages of expensive military supremacy. The reported downing of US aircraft, whether isolated or part of a broader pattern, reinforces the idea that even high-end systems are vulnerable under certain conditions.
Another layer to this evolving situation is global interdependence. Today’s world is deeply interconnected through energy flows, trade routes, and financial systems. Any disruption in a critical node like the Strait of Hormuz can have cascading effects across continents. Iran’s ability to tap into this interconnectedness amplifies its strategic weight, allowing it to influence events far beyond its immediate borders.
Tilt in balance
At the same time, it would be misleading to suggest that Iran is firmly “in the driver’s seat.” The United States and its allies still possess overwhelming military and economic advantages and the long-term trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the balance is not as one-sided as raw numbers might indicate.
What this conflict ultimately reveals is a shift in how power is understood. Geography has re-emerged as a decisive factor. Energy markets, often assumed to be stable, have shown their fragility. Alliances appear more conditional, shaped by interests rather than permanence. And technology is increasingly levelling the playing field.
Wars are often judged by territory gained or lost. This one may be remembered for something else: what it revealed. It has shown that geography can rival firepower, that leverage can matter as much as strength and that in a multipolar world, the ability to impose costs without direct confrontation can be as powerful as battlefield victories.
In that sense, the conflict is not just about who controls the skies or the ground, but about who best understands and uses the deeper dynamics of power.
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