Russia definitely requires a face-saving device to get out of the Ukrainian imbroglio.
The attack on Ukraine initially undertaken ostensibly as a special operation to keep Ukraine from joining NATO has somehow not gone according to the script.
What was thought to be an in and out exercise has continued for months with no end in sight.
An economic drain, a diplomatic disaster, a military misadventure.
No one would have thought that the Ukrainian conflict would continue this long with no victory in sight, particularly when a superpower like Russia is involved.
An angry and frustrated Russia unable to win using conventional arms is now using the threat of nuclear weapons but then it is fraught with other dangers.
The entire world along with the US with a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons will legitimately target Russia if Russia chooses the nuclear option.
On the face of it, Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied having any intentions of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
However, he said that the West’s efforts at global domination by conflicts like Ukraine are also doomed to fail.
Putin is supposed to have said that both politically and militarily it’s pointless for Russia to strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons.
Are the statements primarily to assuage the west so that the talk of the nuclear threat is not taken by them too seriously?
True, Putin had said that he would use “all means” to protect Russia including nuclear arms but he has now clarified that it was more in response to Western statements about their possible use of nuclear weapons. He has also referred to Liz Truss’s statement that she would be ready to use nuclear weapons if she became Britain’s prime minister. But that was before she stepped down after becoming the British PM with the shortest stint, and Rishi Sunak took over.
Both Russia and Ukraine are also making allegations that the other party may detonate a dirty bomb and pin it on the other.
Russia is left with little choice with NATO’s refusal to rule out prospective Ukraine’s membership and Ukraine not ready to come to the negotiating table.
Putin is still not ready to accept that the Ukraine plan had gone completely awry. There may be a separatist problem in Ukraine but that does not give it any right to jump in with its military.
Actually, the Ukraine conflict has taught us one thing and that is that in military conflicts more than your military might it is the inherent indomitable spirit and moral high of the combatants which takes the day.
However powerful Russia may be. In this purportedly a David and Goliath kind of situation Ukrainians not only enjoy a moral high today but are bitterly fighting for every inch of their land.
Russia may give hundreds of justifications for its presence in Ukraine but no decisive victory seems to be in sight soon.
As the talk of the nuclear option is coming up again and again, one must understand that both Russia and US are mature countries and are not likely to press the button any time soon.
Even though Russian nuclear forces had been put on high combat alert soon after Russia entered Ukraine it was more to deter any immediate military response of the United States or any of its allies.
Both US and Russia are today bound by and abide by the treaty on strategic nuclear forces between US-Russia known as the New START Treaty.
Both countries have also not allowed the Ukrainian conflict to affect their international commitments in outer space – the International Space Station.
This year Russia also notified the Pentagon of its intent to conduct its routine annual strategic nuclear exercise, Grom (“Thunder”).
The US too understands that these little disclosures by Russia ensure that the US is not taken by surprise and the chances of any misunderstanding are reduced. So both superpowers fully understand their responsibilities.
Under the New START treaty both US and Russia regularly exchange classified information on their nuclear armaments.
Both countries know that they have large nuclear arsenals, but they also know that they cannot flaunt the nuclear option or make it a “knee jerk” reaction to any routine world event of aggresion and conflict.
As far as nuclear arms is concerned they have to follow the established treaty and protocol which binds them both.
The use of nuclear arms can be highly devastating and unilateral use by any one country can lead to facing nuclear bombardments by others, leading to the triggering of a third world war. A situation any right minded mature country would like to avoid at all costs.
Both US and Russia have a strong interest to maintain limits on strategic offensive nuclear forces.
Despite progress in reducing nuclear weapon arsenals since the Cold War, the world’s combined inventory of nuclear warheads remains at a very high level: nine countries possess roughly 12,700 warheads as of early 2022.
With nuclear power comes responsibility and therefore countries with nuclear armaments must behave in a mature fashion, showing utmost restraint, balance and level headedness.
| Posted by Sameer Khan | 
