Suddenly the Israel-Iran war is no longer a war taking place in far off Middle East but seemingly coming very close to us. Already stock market has taken a hit, oil price and gold price have shot up.
Escalation of the war has the potential to wreak havoc on the global economy, it can perhaps lead to new political boundaries being drawn, it can lead to large scale devastation and loss of human lives.
However, whether the conflagration can lead to a Third World War (a fear in the collective psyche of all of us), is something doubtful. But if world leaders do not take measures to put sufficient pressure on the warring countries to go in for immediate ceasefire and allow it to escalate much further then one cannot say in which direction the war will go.
As it is the international organisation like the United Nations is toothless.
The problem is looking at the ideological angle both the sides have sufficient reasons to believe that what steps they are taking are morally right.
Almost since the inception of Israel, established as a country in erstwhile Palestine there have been innumerable conflicts of Israel with Arabs in Palestine as well as other neighboring countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and Egypt.
The division of Palestine into two separate states of Israel and Palestine somehow has not taken place as envisaged.
Israel clearly feels that they have full rights to defend what which was their original homeland for centuries. For that matter it is the only place on earth that the Jews can legitimately call their own nation. But what about Arabs who have been staying in Palestine for centuries?
But even though Israel has been established decades ago in 1948 in Palestine, the new nation of Israel continuously had conflict and friction with its Arab neighbours.
It was U.S. President Harry S. Truman who recognized the new nation of Israel on the day it was established and from that time on America has given it its full support.
Way back in 1947, the United Nations Special Commission on Palestine examined the Palestinian question and recommended the partition of Palestine into a Jewish and an Arab state.
But Palestine has still (2024) not got a full Membership of the United Nations. The matter of giving full membership to Palestine came up even this year but was vetoed by USA.
Israel proclaimed its independence as Israel and in the 1948 war involving neighbouring Arab States expanded to 77 percent of the territory of Palestine, including the larger part of Jerusalem.
Over half of the Palestinian Arab population fled or were expelled. Jordan and Egypt controlled the rest of the territory for the Arab state.
In the 1967 war, Israel occupied these territories (Gaza Strip and the West Bank) including East Jerusalem, which was subsequently annexed by Israel.
The war brought about a second exodus of Palestinians, estimated at half a million.
So, the conflict between Arabs and Israelites has been continuing for years and is likely to continue for years.
During the present conflict between militant organisations like Hezbollah and Hamas with Israel, Iran has now jumped in particularly after the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated following an air strike by Israel.
Hazbollah is supported by Iran.
Iran has launched massive missile attack on Israel which it claims have hit its targets, whereas Israel claims that it has not been able to cause much damage to Israel.
Experts says that Iran was using its Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (which were much faster than usual missiles) which even the ultra modern anti missile defence system of Israel may not have been able to diffuse in the air.
But Israel is now determined to give a strong reply.
What shape the Israel attack takes place is something to be watched out for because on that will depend the escalation of the war.
Israel has two crucial targets, one is Iran’s oil installations, second is its nuclear installations.
Attacks on both targets can have devastating effects and really escalate the war because Iran would not also sit quiet but would be forced to retaliate.
Other Arab countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, may join hands to teach Israel a lesson. Despite the fact that such joint operations earlier have failed against the formidable enemy as Israel led Israel to acquire more of its enemies territories.
If this happens then and it becomes a largescale war then America may come in to support Israel in a big way.
But other countries supporting the Arabs like Russia, China may also join in the fray in support of the Arab nations.
This kind of a scenario can lead to a Third World War.
What will America do is crucial? Till now it has not come out directly in this war though it supports Israel.
Netanyahu knows that Israel’s military prowess and its confidence to deal with Arab countries around it comes to a large extent on the basis of the support it enjoys of the USA, which provides it the latest weaponry and stands by as a Super power behind Israel.
Here it is crucial to remember that this time American president Joe Biden has made it clear that it supports Israel’s right to defend but if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear installations, it will not be supporting the act.
But then there are the oil installations which if attacked could literally cripple world economy largely dependent on Iran’s oil resource.
American government today is a lame duck government with elections about a month away. So, the present government may not be able to take any crucial decision involving America till the elections are over.
For Netanyahu this provides a window of opportunity to act as he wishes till a new government takes over in the US.
Netanyahu knows that if Ms Kamala Harris takes over the Oval office then America may put restrictions on use of American weapons by Israel.
Experts also feel that Netanyahu hopes for a Trump win in the American elections, expecting to get a freer hand. Even during election campaign Trump shockingly has gone ahead and urged Israel to target Iran’s nuclear installations.
Whatever the election results may be. One knows that if any country has power to stop the actions of Netanyahu , it is the United States of America. It all depends on how much rope is the USA ready to give Israel or to stop the present conflagration to spiral towards a Third World War.
Actually a lot depends on the results of the elections too.
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