Delhi: ‘Political party and candidate’ was the most significant factor in deciding voting patterns in three of the four states that went to the polls last month with the issue of “corruption” having varied significance among voters, according to the analysis by Today’s Chanakya of its survey among voters.
Today’s Chanakya also predicted the expected seats by each party and the support from various communities.
It said ‘political party and candidate’ had an influence of about 34 per cent in voting patterns in Madhya Pradesh, 29 per cent in Chhattisgarh and 36 per cent in Telangana.
Today’s Chanakya said that ‘development’ had an influence of 37 per cent in Rajasthan while ‘political party and candidate’ had a significance of 28 per cent.
In terms of caste and community support, it said 54 per cent of Brahimns voted for BJP in Madhya Pradesh and 28 per cent for Congress. It said among Rajputs, the figure for BJP and Congress was 47 per cent and 38 per cent respectively, Scheduled Castes 45 per cent and 41 per cent, STs 46 per cent and 39 per cent, Muslims eight per cent and 84 per cent and among OBCs 47 per cent and 31 per cent.
The exit poll predicted BJP winning in Madhya Pradesh with 151 (plus/minus 12 seats), Congress 74 (plus/minus 12 seats) and others 5 (plus/minus 4) seats. The state has 230 assembly seats.
Today’s Chanakya said that based on its survey in Chhattisgarh, 37 per cent among the SC community voted for BJP and 54 per cent for Congress, among the STs the figure was 38 per cent and 51 per cent, OBCs 40 per cent and 42 per cent and among others it was 51 per cent and 34 per cent.
It predicted 33 +- 8 seats for BJP, 57 +- 8 seats for Congress and 0 +- 3 seats for others.
In Rajasthan, the survey said that Congress+ got the support of 32 per cent of members from the Jat community and the BJP got 38 per cent.
It said the figure was 58 per cent and 31 per cent for the SC community for Congress and BJP respectively, it was 46 per cent and 36 per cent for Meena and STs, 83 per cent and seven per cent among Muslims, 26 per cent and 53 per cent among Brahmins, 29 per cent and 47 per cent among Rajputs and 28 per cent and 48 per cent among OBCs.
The poll predicted Congress getting 101 +- 12 seats, BJP 89 +- 12 and others 9 +- 7 seats. The polling in the state was held on 199 seats.
The survey said that in Telangana, BJP+ got the support of 20 per cent among upper castes, Congress+ 36 per cent and BRS 33 per cent. It said the figure of three parties among SCs was 8 per cent, 49 per cent and 35 per cent respectively, among STs 9 per cent, 44 per cent and 36 per cent, among Muslims 3 per cent, 43 per cent and 42 per cent and among BCs it was 18 per cent, 37 per cent and 34 per cent.
The survey said Congress was poised to get 71 +- 9 seats, BRS 33 +- 9 seats, BJP 7 +- 5 seats and others 8 +- 3 seats in the 119-member state assembly.
The counting of votes in all four states and Mizoram will be held on December 3.
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