Even after New Zealand thrashed Sri Lanka in yesterday’s match, mathematically, there are chances that Pakistan can still qualify for the ICC World Cup semifinal 2023. However, they need to improve their Net Run Rate (NRR) massively.
In tomorrow’s match against England, Pakistan not only need to win but also improve their NRR by beating the defending champions by a massive margin.
ICC World Cup points table
The first three spots for the ICC World Cup semifinal in 2023 are already occupied by India, South Africa, and Australia. Now, New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are competing for the fourth spot.
Currently, New Zealand has played all of its matches in the knockout stage and settled with 10 points and +0.743 NRR.
On the other hand, Pakistan and Afghanistan have 8 points each. However, their NRRs are +0.036 and -0.338, respectively.
| Team | Matches played | Matches won | Matches lost | NRR | Points |
| India | 8 | 8 | 0 | +2.456 | 16 |
| South Africa | 8 | 6 | 2 | +1.376 | 12 |
| Australia | 8 | 6 | 2 | +0.861 | 12 |
| New Zealand | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0.743 | 10 |
| Pakistan | 8 | 4 | 4 | +0.036 | 8 |
| Afghanistan | 8 | 4 | 4 | -0.338 | 8 |
| England | 8 | 2 | 6 | -0.885 | 4 |
| Bangladesh | 8 | 2 | 6 | -1.142 | 4 |
| Sri Lanka | 9 | 2 | 7 | -1.419 | 4 |
| Netherland | 8 | 2 | 6 | -1.635 | 4 |
The chances of New Zealand qualifying for the semifinal are the highest. However, Pakistan still has some hope left, whereas Afghanistan is almost out of the ICC World Cup.
How Pakistan can qualify for ICC World Cup semifinal
For Pakistan to qualify, it needs to increase its NRR to +0.75, which can be mathematically achieved in two ways:
- If Pakistan bats first, it needs to win by 288 runs.
- If Pakistan bowls first, it needs to chase the target with 284 deliveries to spare.
Although the number of deliveries to spare depends on how many runs England scores, it will be so high that it is practically impossible.
In such a scenario, the toss is also going to play a crucial role, as Pakistan bowling first will make it practically impossible for the ‘men in green’ to qualify for the semifinal.
Even in the case of batting first, it is very difficult for Pakistan to win by 288 runs against England.
In this scenario, though mathematically possible for Pakistan to qualify for the ICC World Cup semifinal, it is practically an almost impossible task.
