Hyderabad: As many as 7,05,720 electors from Khairatabad, Musheerabad, Amberpet, Secunderabad, Sanathnagar and Secunderabad Cantonment stand to come off the draft roll if their exclusion is confirmed in the final Special Intensive Revision (SIR) list. That is about 36 per cent of Hyderabad’s flagged total. An estimated 1.09 lakh of them carry Muslim names.
The estimated share of Muslim-name exclusions in these six Assembly constituencies runs from 20 per cent down to 11 per cent, the lowest in Hyderabad’s 15 Assembly seats. Together, they account for only 14 per cent of the district’s Muslim-name exclusions, Siasat.com‘s analysis of electors marked as Absent, Shifted, Dead and Duplicate (ASDD) in the Hyderabad SIR shows.
In contrast, in Bahadurpura‘s ASDD list, 86 in every 100 names dropped carry Muslim names, and in Chandrayangutta it is 72 out of every 100. Muslim names form an overwhelming majority of those lists, and any sample drawn from them would reflect that.
Highest Muslim-name share is in the duplicate category
There is a second pattern in the data, Siasat.com‘s analysis shows. Of the four ASDD categories, duplicate has the highest Muslim-name share in every Assembly constituency in Hyderabad.
In the Old City, that could be a coincidence. In Khairatabad, Musheerabad, Amberpet, Secunderabad, Sanathnagar and Secunderabad Cantonment, it may not be. In Khairatabad, where Muslim-name flags are 20 out of every 100 electors, that number jumps to 38 out of every 100 in the duplicate category.
While overall 17 out of 100 flagged names are Muslim names in Musheerabad, here too the duplicate list shows 38 out of every 100. Amberpet is 17 and 32. Sanathnagar is 13 and 28. Secunderabad Cantonment has the district’s smallest Muslim-name share at 11, while its duplicate column is still 20 out of every 100.
A duplicate flag says the elector is already on the roll somewhere else. This is roughly double, seat after seat, in a part of the city where Muslims are a minority.
Musheerabad flagged more electors than anywhere else in this group
Musheerabad started with 3,10,116 electors and had 1,40,070 flagged. That is 45 in every 100 electors, the steepest cut in Hyderabad. Sanathnagar levels with Musheerabad in percentage terms, with 1,14,131 of 2,54,030 electors flagged.
Khairatabad had 42 in every 100 electors flagged in the SIR exercise. Amberpet and Secunderabad Cantonment had 43. Only Secunderabad, at 38, was under Hyderabad’s overall figure of 41.
In Sanathnagar, 4,172 of the 1,14,131 names flagged were marked dead. That is under four in every 100, the smallest share in Hyderabad.
Secunderabad stands out on a third count. It marked 29,644 electors absent, or 29 in every 100 names flagged. Only Charminar is higher, at 38 out of 100. Across Hyderabad, this figure is 17.5.
Shifted, the biggest category
Shifted is the main reason in all six seats. It covers 58 in every 100 names flagged in Secunderabad and 83 in Sanathnagar.
It is also the category with the smallest Muslim-name share. That holds in five of the six seats, from 10 in every 100 in Secunderabad Cantonment to 18 in Khairatabad. So the biggest category is also the one where Muslim names show up least.
What this shows and what it does not
None of Siasat.com‘s analysis says why any one name was flagged. The lists give a category and nothing more. Where one column looks different from another, this data cannot say why.
The 1.09 lakh figure of Muslim-name exclusion is the sum of the six seats’ own estimates.
None of these 7,05,720 names has been deleted yet. They are only flagged. Electors left off the draft roll can file a claim until October 7. Hearings run to November 5. The final list is due on November 9. Names on the ASDD list do not receive the notices issued to unmapped electors and those flagged for anomalies.
Disclaimer
Estimates in this report come from a name-based model applied to the Election Commission’s published lists. Electoral rolls in India carry no religion column, as the law does not permit one. The model returns a probability for each name and only group totals are published. No individual entry is labelled.
(This is Part 12 of a multi-part series on the analysis of the Telangana and Hyderabad SIR. Click to read Part 10 and Part 11)
| 
